Analyst Gevorgyan: Azerbaijan is strong, but weak Armenia benefits everyone

London-based analyst and expert on Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Lilit Gevorgyan has said that there is a regional consensus that a weak Armenia at the moment is beneficial to everyone.

"Azerbaijan is using maximum opportunities to gain all available leverage. In addition, it has demonstrated very effectively what the international community means. Azerbaijan is taking very precise steps, approaching the solution of the problem step by step: first it creates the situation, then it formulates its demands step by step," Gevorgyan said in an interview with Armenian media, Caliber.Az reports.

"As far as Armenia's political class is concerned, it always has this narrative: 'we have problems, the international community demands it and so on.' In fact, this can somehow prevent states from formulating their own plans. Yes, Armenia must somehow comply with international law, especially if it fits well together and creates a new reality, as Azerbaijan does. Will Azerbaijan be able to achieve this? At least it was able to build a consensus in the region that allowed it to fight more than one war and reach a point where the opposite side accepted this peace agenda.

I think now Armenia should completely reconsider its political identity, introduce a new concept in the region and make serious efforts towards this, since there is a regional consensus that a weak Armenia at the moment is beneficial to everyone. If Armenia truly wants to form a strategic relationship, its new role is of great importance. The easiest way is regional integration. The policy of mixed signals pursued by Armenia is very dangerous. And if you are in a security system that doesn't work, it can bring more danger. In this case, an asymmetrical situation is created, and you have very little leverage over the foreign policy of a large country,” the expert said.