Armenia becoming West's aggressive ally US, NATO influence growing in the country

As previously reported, the United States Senate Committee on Appropriations has approved a $65 million aid package for Armenia. It is widely believed that this funding will be used to enhance the Armenian military, as the overall "aid" from the EU and the US is aimed at increasing Armenia's defence budget, despite being labeled for peaceful initiatives.

What is the United States' goal in supporting Yerevan's military ambitions so openly? To explore this, a Caliber.Az correspondent reached out to international political analysts for their views.

Stanislav Tkachenko, Doctor of Economics, Ph.D in History at School of International Relations, Saint Petersburg State University, and a Russian political scientist, believes that the $65 million aid allocated by Washington to Armenia for the next fiscal year has multiple implications. He points out that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's pivot to the West, which gained momentum in late 2023, has led the US to believe that it can once again reshape the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus.

Washington aims to sustain a level of interstate conflict in the region that would weaken the three regional powers and enable the US to reassert itself as the primary external influence, disciplining independent actors and rewarding compliant ones.

Tkachenko observes that the current Armenian leadership is increasingly handing over crucial government functions, including defence and national security, to external entities like the EU and the US. He notes that such geopolitical opportunities are rare for Washington, with the last similar case being Ukraine, which has become fully controlled by the US.

Economically, Tkachenko notes that despite rapid national economic growth driven by Armenia's membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and access to the vast Russian market, the Armenian government still runs a budget deficit. He argues that the $65 million aid for next year, although seemingly modest, is a tactic by Washington to make Armenia reliant on subsidies. This dependence would force Yerevan to follow directives from the US. As defence spending is a major part of Armenia's budget, such aid could worsen the security situation across the South Caucasus.

“Diplomatically, by allowing a permanent US and NATO military presence on its soil and purchasing weapons from countries hostile to Russia, Armenia is shifting from being an ally of Moscow to becoming a foreign policy adversary. This shift contradicts the national interests of the Armenian people and their historical connections with Russia.

Moscow's diplomatic efforts over the past 25 years have failed to persuade the Armenian government to peacefully resolve the Karabakh issue. Now, Nikol Pashinyan is attempting to shift the blame onto Moscow, using it to justify his governance to the Armenian populace while breaking ties with Russia. Thus, even though the $65 million aid from the US might not be significant, it signals important new directions in Armenia's foreign policy. These changes will be considered in foreign policy planning by South Caucasus neighbors and in the broader international context, including Russia,” Tkachenko concluded.

Belarusian political scientist and Ph.D candidate Sergey Tomitsa believes that the US is increasingly asserting its interests in Armenia. He finds it alarming that Armenia is becoming a military satellite of the West, likening it to a "mad dog" that can be directed against Baku, Moscow, or even other targets.

Tomitsa suggests that the US will be the main coordinator of Armenia's actions, even more than France and the EU, who will also support Yerevan. The US aims to control the South Caucasus and its transit routes, effectively freezing this potential. Washington's analysts see the Zangazur corridor as a threat, as it would bolster the positions of Azerbaijan, Russia, Türkiye, and ultimately China and its "Silk Road" initiative.

“The US is worried about all the countries mentioned and will take extensive measures to hinder transportation integration between these countries and China. China's influence is the main driver behind US efforts to destabilize the region, overshadowing the European Union's plans.

While the EU has a theoretical interest in regional development and infrastructure due to its connection with the South Caucasus, it is largely subordinate to US directives, following them closely despite its own interests,” the pundit added.