IMF projects nearly 4% growth for Azerbaijan’s non-oil economy in 2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that Azerbaijan’s non-oil sector will expand by close to 4% this year, the Fund confirmed in response to APA-Economics.

Overall, the IMF expects Azerbaijan’s total economic growth to reach around 2.5% in 2026, maintaining a similar pace in the coming years.

The Fund attributes this recovery to a gradual normalisation of the economy following slower growth in 2025. Oil production is projected to decrease slightly by 0.5% in 2026, limiting its drag on overall economic performance.

Non-oil growth of 3.7% is seen as achievable, supported by favourable base effects and the assumption that global oil prices will remain relatively high.

Looking regionally, the IMF expects the Central Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region to grow by 4.7% in 2026, driven by credit growth, fiscal stimulus, and higher hydrocarbon output.

However, the IMF cautioned that medium-term growth could slow, emphasising the need for the region to adopt a diversified growth model with a stronger role for the private sector.

By Jeyhun Aghazada