Financial group projects Azerbaijan budget surplus at 5% of GDP in 2026

International financial group ING, in its updated outlook, projects that Azerbaijan’s state budget surplus will reach 5% of GDP in 2026, while the current account surplus is expected to stand at 11% of GDP.

The company’s analysts said the revised global forecast is directly contributing to stronger external and fiscal buffers in Azerbaijan, Caliber.Az reports, citing local media.

“We view our updated global forecast as a direct driver of strengthening Azerbaijan's external and fiscal buffers: it is expected that the budget surplus will reach 5% of GDP, and the current account balance will amount to 11% of GDP in 2026,” they noted.

According to them, Azerbaijan continues to benefit significantly from higher global energy prices.

“At present, the key factors remain higher fuel revenues and broader energy diplomacy,” they added.

ING analysts also pointed to continued developments in regional trade and energy corridors, saying recent data suggests a stable trajectory.

They cited ongoing discussions on additional investment in the Azeri–Chirag–Gunashli oil field, the signing of a 15-year gas supply agreement for the Absheron gas field with Türkiye, and consideration of the Baku–Supsa pipeline route as an alternative export channel for Kazakhstan.

At the same time, ING flagged several risks that require monitoring, including exposure to inflationary pressures from trading partners and a potential slowdown in economic growth.

By Bakhtiyar Abbasov