JISS: IRGC retains power in weakened Iran but faces internal divisions

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps continues to maintain control over Iran despite internal crises and a weakened political system, according to the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS).

Analysts note that Iran has reached a diplomatic deadlock, while the ruling military elite retains the capacity to suppress dissent. However, it faces significant difficulties in restoring lost capabilities or resolving the crisis through negotiations.

At the centre of Iran’s political life are two key figures: parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi. Despite their influence, neither is capable of governing the country independently, and decisions are made collectively. “The IRGC makes decisions collectively, like any other junta, rather than operating as a one-man dictatorship,” JISS analysts emphasise.

The regime faces a dilemma: Iran cannot abandon its ideological principles or capitulate under US pressure. “For the regime, surrender is tantamount to political suicide,” the authors add.

In addition, the deteriorating socio-economic situation is undermining internal stability. The loss of millions of jobs due to internet restrictions and damage to the digital economy—estimated at $1.69 billion—has placed Iran under further strain. Despite maintaining control, Iran faces challenges that weaken its ability to rebuild both military and economic capacity, the analysts conclude.