"Kazakhstan feels danger from Russia" Pundit deciphers president's message

The Kazakh president made a landmark statement, particularly noteworthy amidst the current uneasy Moscow-Astana relations. According to Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, there is currently an unprecedented aggravation of the international situation, and "some large countries are trying to literally push through their agenda, to impose their standards". "And the clash of different, often diametrically opposed ideas and approaches is now affecting not only geopolitics or economics but also culture and spiritual values, in other words, ideology," Kazakhstan's leader stressed.

So which countries was the president of Kazakhstan alluding to? To whom was his message directed: to Western countries or to Russia? Or perhaps to both at once?

Another thing is noticeable too: Tokayev was not just noting, but expressing clear concern about the current international situation, pointing out that such confrontation is fraught with the most serious negative consequences for the secure existence of several states and peoples. "The international situation does not inspire optimism, so the Republic of Kazakhstan must be united as never before," he urged the country's citizens.

Kazakh political analyst Aidar Amrebayev, Director of the Centre for Political Research, expressed his viewpoint on this issue in his conversation with Caliber.Az. In his opinion, everything is clear here: President Tokayev is referring to Russia.

"In our tradition, there is an expression 'astarlap soyleu', i.e. to speak in hints, with a double meaning... In this case, Tokayev expresses concern about aggressive impulses that come from the current authorities of the Russian Federation, which in reality manifest today in Russia's military aggression against Ukraine. And apart from Ukraine, Moscow conducts information and ideological warfare in a number of countries at once. In any case, we can feel it by turning on Russian TV channels and watching the news or other materials in Russian-language newspapers and magazines. They are trying to persistently impose on us Moscow's ideologues, stereotypes, values and meanings, an alien picture of the world which does not meet our national interests," the expert stressed.

As a former high-level Soviet diplomat, Tokayev is unable to respond directly to these challenges and actions of the Russian leadership, the political scientist said. He has to express Kazakhstan's point of view on certain issues allegorically. He is well aware of the consequences of even merely speaking out against the Russian position, let alone taking any action that runs counter to the Kremlin's current policy.

"As an experienced diplomat, he uses Aesopian language to convey his position. In reality, however, Kazakhstan perceives a danger coming from the current political regime in Russia. It is paradoxical, but even our participation in such formats of interaction with Russia as the EAEC and the CSTO can be seen as a desire to secure ourselves and to contain Russia, to redirect its aggression in the other direction from itself. We pay dearly for this, but this is the price of our sovereignty and territorial integrity," Amrebayev explained.

According to him, the idea of developing the Trans-Caspian transport route is dictated by the logic of ongoing tectonic processes in Greater Eurasia and Kazakhstan's search for sustainable positioning in this challenging environment. And Russia increasingly does not fit into these schemes of the new reality.

"Our country is attempting to expand its room for manoeuvre in order to preserve its economic sovereignty and relevance as a transit territory. President Tokayev believes that an important strategic goal for Kazakhstan should be to make the country a hub, a transport and logistics hub between North and South, East and West. The so-called "Middle Corridor" solves exactly this task in the context of the sanctions regime and Russia's worsening economic isolation. It is already obvious that this country will be left out of the main road of economic dynamics based on high-tech development and the actual interaction between the wealthy global markets of the West represented by the EU and the East and the capacious markets of China and India," said the political scientist.

Amrebayev says now there is every chance to unite the Turkic countries in a single political, economic and logistical union.

"I would like to emphasize the importance of the formation of the ‘Middle Corridor’ of a kind of ‘Turkic arc’, consisting of complementary and similar in nature political institutions of such countries as Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Türkiye and Uzbekistan. There is a common political will among the leaders of these countries to join forces in this direction. Given China's activism in establishing the 'Belt and Road' to the West, the 'Middle Corridor bypassing Russia has every chance of becoming a successful sustainable development project on the continent’," the expert concluded.