Projections forecast Azerbaijan's GDP to reach $98 billion by 2030

Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Finance has published its Medium-Term Budget Framework for 2027–2030, outlining expectations for steady economic growth, continued diversification and a stable macroeconomic environment over the next five years.

GDP is forecast to reach around 139 billion manats (approx. $81.7 billion) by 2027, according to projections published on the ministry’s website, as Caliber.Az reports, forecast to rise further to 166.9 billion manats (approx. $98 billion) by 2030

The government estimates the non-oil and gas sector to play an increasingly dominant role in the economy, with its share of GDP projected to increase from 71.5% in 2025 to 78% in 2027 and 81.8% by 2030. 

Real GDP growth is expected to average 3.3% annually, while non-oil GDP is forecast to expand by 4.2% per year over the medium term.

The outlook is based on an assumed average export oil price of $65 per barrel for 2027–2030.

At the same time, the Ministry of Economy expects oil and gas production to decline in 2026, before recovering in the latter part of the forecast period, with growth anticipated in 2029–2030 alongside higher output of oil and marketable gas.

Fixed capital investment is projected to increase by 5.6% in 2027, followed by average annual growth of 2.1% in the medium term. Investment in the oil and gas sector is also expected to rise between 2026 and 2028.

Inflation in the base scenario is forecast at 5.5% this year, gradually easing to 4.6% by 2030.

Household incomes are projected to reach 135.4 billion manats (approx. $80 billion) by 2030, while household spending is expected to amount to 133.6 billion manats.

The macroeconomic framework also assumes that the manat will remain stable against the US dollar throughout the 2027–2030 period, unchanged from current levels.

By Nazrin Sadigova