Russian pundit: Armenia of no interest to Russia Withdrawal of military base inevitable

Russian political scientist Modest Kolerov asserted that Armenia no longer holds strategic importance for Russia, indicating an inevitable withdrawal of the Russian 102nd military base from the country, particularly under the leadership of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

“The withdrawal of the Russian 102nd military base from Armenia is inevitable, and it will be withdrawn under Pashinyan. I have absolutely no doubts. I also think that it will be Armenia that will take the initiative to withdraw the military base,” Kolerov told Armenian media, Caliber.Az reports.

"The existence of the military base ceased long ago. Besides, the existence of the military base has no military sense, as this military base under the conditions that exist in Armenia is completely restricted in its activities not only by the central authorities of Armenia, but also by the authorities of Gyumri. It has long been known that even in the case of battalion exercises, i.e. only 300 people, it is necessary to obtain the consent of the Gyumri mayor's office. The equipment, infrastructure, provision or supply, the regime in which the Russian base in Gyumri exists today has long been outdated and not updated. The main problem is that I may have outdated data, 5-6 thousand people who work at the base are citizens of Armenia. This is a job for them, the withdrawal of the military base will dramatically increase unemployment in Gyumri," Kolerov noted.

But, in his opinion, this base has no influence, no role in Armenia's security, as it is limited in its actions by the Armenian authorities. "And if it does not operate according to the military plan, it is just a military warehouse of outdated and in many cases already corroded, non-functioning military equipment," he added.

"So, the base does not and cannot threaten Türkiye, so Türkiye will never go into conflict with the US over this ill-fated base in terms of sanctions. The only thing that exists from the Russian armed forces in Armenia is a branch of the Gyumri military base at Erebuni airport. There is modern equipment, but these are aeroplanes that cannot take off without the permission of the Armenian authorities. It's also a warehouse - that's it, it's not a subject, it's not an issue. And finally, the Gyumri military base and the Erebuni branch do not protect Russia's interests in any way. Why? Because since 2008 Russian interests in Transcaucasia have been protected by two Russian bases in Abkhazia and North Ossetia, and a flight from North Ossetia to Armenia takes only ten minutes, that's all. There is no subject for negotiations here, there can be no talk about Russia's special interests: ‘the train has left’. The border guards will leave, and the base will leave," emphasized Kolerov.

In other words, in his opinion, Armenia is no longer of any interest to Russia. "Yes, it does not and a lot of time has passed since 2008," the Russian political scientist added.

Kolerov also recalled that 15 years ago a special correspondent was sent to Gyumri to photograph a Russian military base, and the result was as follows: "a cracked fence, faulty equipment and just a passable courtyard."

"A base has to live as a base, and when you even have to coordinate the movement of a battalion with the mayor of Gyumri, it means two things, that there is no government of Armenia in Armenia, but the government of the mayor of Gyumri, and secondly, that a base is not a base, it is a warehouse of rusty equipment, whose actions are restricted not by Pashinyan, but by the mayor of Gyumri. Do you think the 102nd military base in Gyumri will be able to defend Armenia?" - concluded Kolerov, asking a rhetorical question.