France's pivot toward Central Asia may be a signal for a new foreign policy agenda
Courting new alliances

ANALYTICS  03 November 2023 - 14:36

On November 1, French President Emmanuel Macron embarked on his first tour of the Central Asian region as he sought to strengthen ties in the region where Russia and China enjoy strong influence. The French leader met Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, holding talks to “accelerate cooperation” in key sectors. The next destination of the French President was Uzbekistan, another key regional country with its new ambitious foreign policy agenda.

During the meeting with Tokayev, the pair signed a number of agreements covering economic sectors, including critical minerals vital for clean energy technologies, pharmaceuticals, and aerospace. Indeed, the Central Asian region's importance has grown significantly amid the Russo-Ukraine war due to its vast natural resources that could prompt Europe’s energy security. Oil-rich Kazakhstan has already emerged as a replacement supplier of crude to European nations, turning off Russian supply and an essential link in the new China-Europe trade route bypassing Russia.

In this vein, in the last few years, France has seen increased business dealings with Kazakhstan and has become the country's fifth largest foreign investor, ahead of China. As such, trade turnover between France and Kazakhstan reached $5.6 billion in 2022, and Kazakhstan supplies around 40% of France's uranium needs. Since the inception of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan slightly moved away from Russia-centered policy to comply with sanctions against Russia and refused to recognize the illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory but still retains close economic and political ties with Moscow.

However, Kazakhstan came under fire from Western partners for its alleged role in assisting Russia to circumvent imposed sanctions, which forced Astana to turn down such efforts. During the visit, President Macron acknowledged the "geopolitical pressures" being put on Kazakhstan, which borders Russia to its north and China to its east. Consequently, Macron’s visit to the region did not go unnoticed in Moscow as it does not hide concerns about the West's growing activities, citing that the West is trying to pull Russia’s “neighbours, friends and allies” away from it.

Emmanuel Macron's main agenda in his Central Asian visit was energy and uranium exports. The recent military coup in the West African country of Niger raised the prospect that supplies to France's vital nuclear industry might be in jeopardy as the country was the main exporter of uranium to France. Last year, Niger was the second supplier of uranium to France. The first was the Central Asian country of Kazakhstan. Moreover, France is the fifth-biggest foreign investor in Kazakhstan, and the longstanding relationship includes the massive Kashagan offshore oilfield project partnered with French energy giant Total Energies, as well as a uranium mine run by French company Orano, the head of which is among Macron’s delegation.

Undoubtedly, France is willing to secure additional uranium exports as it relies on nuclear energy to generate more than 60% of its electricity, the highest share of any country. In addition to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan may provide France with fuel and become a good destination for French investments in the green energy field. In this context, the joint venture Nurlikum Mining – owned 51 per cent by French nuclear giant Orano and 49 per cent by Navoiy Uran, the Uzbek state-owned nuclear company – has been active in the country since 2018.

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan also seem enthusiastic about boosting ties with France in an attempt to attract more investments and French know-how to develop their own engineers and domestic nuclear power industry. France, as the leading EU member country, pursues more assertive policy beyond the European continent, particularly in Central Asia, to counter Russia and China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project. Reportedly, more than 100 BRI projects have been funded in Central Asia, so new projects are colloquially described as "Chinese".

Hence, such a policy opens new horizons for France and the EU to strengthen their influence. For example, besides energy and uranium exports, Macron and Tokayev signed a military contract, which envisages the supply of Ground Master 400 air defence radar systems to Kazakhstan to boost the country's sovereignty.

With the shift in the geopolitical landscape in Eurasia, regional countries try to adapt to new realities and get more dividends in terms of economy, energy, and security partnership. Therefore, Emmanuel Macron's visit to Central Asia and vocal statements in Russia's backyard should come as little surprise.

Caliber.Az