Trump plays his cards ahead of midterms Money, tariffs and the fight against Democrats

Virtually all major media outlets, followed by the global information community, reported on US President Donald Trump’s two-hour speech at the Republican Party convention. However, most focused primarily on his promise to give every adult American $5,000 if Republicans retain control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the upcoming November midterm elections.

Trump did indeed make that promise, but it would be wrong to reduce his speech to that point alone.

First and foremost, declaring that in 55 days, “Your vote will decide whether our country stumbles at the starting gate of the next 250 years or surges forward and never ever looks back”, the occupant of the Oval Office once again portrayed members of the Democratic Party as “radical left communists” who, if given free rein, would turn the United States into a communist power. Trump reassured his audience, however, that given America’s experience of defeating communism, the United States would once again prevail — this time for good — denying its opponents any opportunity to destroy the country.

At the same time, clearly addressing an international audience, the US president stressed that the Democrats, whom he dubbed “dumocrats”, were urging Americans to vote for their “failed far-left agenda”, which had undermined Americans’ financial well-being, particularly “under sleepy Joe Biden”. Trump therefore argued that, had he not won the latest presidential election, it was unclear whether the United States would have survived as a state at all.

Against this backdrop, Trump argued that a Republican victory in the midterm elections would set the United States on the right course, while leaving the rest of the world “in our dust for generations to come”. It was in this context that Donald Trump unveiled his proposal to give $5,000 to “every adult citizen” in the country, likening the payment to dividends distributed by a successful company to its shareholders. The only condition he attached to the payments was that the money be spent in the United States rather than in Canada, China or Germany.

Trump then went on to specify which of his actions during his second term had, in his words, reversed the Democrats’ terrible decisions. In particular, he stressed that men should not compete in women’s sports. The president also highlighted what he described as the end of the “woke madness” he said had been aggressively imposed by the Democratic Party, pointing to the abolition of all “diversity, equity, and inclusion” (DEI) requirements across federal agencies. Trump said it was also at his initiative that bans on transgender ideology and critical race theory in public schools had become a reality, bringing an end to what he described as “mutilating” gender-transition surgeries for children.

Trump stressed that, unlike Democrats, who “put handcuffs on the police”, Republicans “put handcuffs on criminals”. He also highlighted what he presented as key achievements of his second presidency: attracting more than $20 trillion in investment from foreign countries and companies; seeing stock markets set 80 all-time records; bringing car factories back to the United States; enacting what he called the largest tax cut in US history; and achieving the lowest number of unemployment-benefit claims ever recorded.

Trump also focused on what he described as the conclusion, under his leadership, of a historic agreement on drug prices, under which Americans had gone, in his words, from paying the highest prescription-drug prices in the world to paying the lowest. In this context, he returned to one of his favourite themes: Europe being forced to accept US demands.

Noting that he had succeeded in securing the desired outcome from US pharmaceutical companies, Trump brought French President Emmanuel Macron into the discussion. According to the US president, he asked Macron to do him a favour by doubling or tripling drug prices in France, noting that “you're paying $10 for a pill and we're paying $130”. Macron, Trump said, refused.

However, Trump said his warning to Macron that he would have to listen to the US president because Washington would otherwise impose a 150 per cent tariff on all wine and other goods imported from France had the desired effect. Trump said he held similar discussions on the issue with nearly 25 other countries and secured their agreement as well. In this regard, he remarked that “everybody has a weak spot”.

In the context of the US president’s remarks on medicines, it should be noted that he was referring to the so-called most-favoured-nation (MFN) pricing model initiated by Trump. The issue has caused genuine concern in Europe, prompting EU health ministers to task the European Commissioner for Health with examining the impact of Trump’s policy on medicine prices and access across the European Union.

It was therefore no coincidence that the US leader said the previous day that America was now “respected again like we have never been respected before”. Against this backdrop, Trump declared: “We'll have American energy independence, something you know a lot about in Texas, and even we will have energy dominance.” With victory over Iran, he added, oil prices would fall.

Trump concluded that his presidency would elevate the American nation to heights of glory and achievement “never seen before, even by our country at its best”, adding that “we will make America great again”.

In this way, Donald Trump once again reminded the American public of the main elements of his election platform. The subtlety, however, lies in the fact that certain points in his speech indicated that he understands the seriousness of the challenge ahead of the midterm elections, particularly against the backdrop of his declining approval rating in the United States.

Thus, less than two months before the November midterms, a nationwide poll conducted by Focaldata showed that just 33% of registered voters approved of Trump’s performance as president. This was the lowest figure recorded since the Financial Times began conducting such polls. The findings lay “bare how voters have soured on the US president’s handling of the economy and cost of living”. Moreover, Trump’s approval rating among Republican voters fell by two points to 72%, marking another record low in FT polling.

It is quite clear that Trump’s speech at the Republican convention was programmatic in nature. He is likely to continue along these lines, particularly after announcing plans to meet with voters in numerous states ahead of the midterm elections. This unequivocally confirms the importance Trump attaches to these elections for the future course of developments in the United States — and beyond.