Netherlands's ING Group boosts Azerbaijan’s 2025 growth forecast to 3%

Azerbaijan’s economy is expected to grow by 3% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, according to the latest projections from ING Group, the Netherlands’ largest banking group.

The revised outlook marks a 0.4 percentage point increase in GDP growth for 2025 compared to previous estimates, while the forecast for 2026 has been lowered by 0.3 percentage points, Caliber.Az reports via local media.

This results in an average annual growth rate of 2.75% for Azerbaijan over the next two years, as per ING’s assessment.

Quarterly forecasts suggest that economic growth will reach 2% in the first quarter of 2025, rising to 3% in the second quarter, 2.5% in the third, and peaking at 4.5% in the final quarter of the year.

The ING projections contrast with estimates from Azerbaijan’s own institutions. The country’s Ministry of Economy expects GDP growth to reach 3.5% in 2025, while the Central Bank forecasts a slightly lower 3.3%.

International financial agencies have provided varying assessments of Azerbaijan’s economic trajectory. S&P Global anticipates annual growth of 2%, while Fitch Ratings projects 3% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026. Moody’s maintains a more conservative estimate of 2.5% per year.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) aligns closely with ING’s forecast, predicting 3% growth in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026. Meanwhile, the World Bank expects Azerbaijan’s economy to expand by 2.7% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026.

Azerbaijan’s economy grew by 4.1% in 2024 but saw a sharp slowdown in early 2025, recording just 0.2% growth in the first two months of the year.

By Aghakazim Guliyev