Baku’s geopolitics, Russia’s Kursk factor and US VP’s campaign in Chicago  Weekly review by Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az presents another episode of "Sobitiya" (Events) show with Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Abiyev, covering the key news of the week related to Azerbaijan and other countries. 

Azerbaijan-Armenia

Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a two-day state visit to Azerbaijan. 

The programme of the visit was broad, with meetings held in both narrow and expanded formats. Several agreements and memorandums were signed, and the leaders issued a joint statement and held a joint press conference. In summary, Azerbaijan and Russia have expressed their determination to strengthen and develop bilateral relations. 

From a geopolitical perspective, the visit was significant for affirming a shared vision of global stability and the importance of avoiding divisive lines in the South Caucasus. Particular emphasis was placed on the North-South transport corridor, especially regarding investment in the modernization of its Azerbaijani segment. It is important to note that during this period, the region experienced troubling events. Just before and during President Putin's visit to Baku, Azerbaijani Armed Forces positions were subjected to shelling in the directions of Nakhchivan and Kalbajar.

Additionally, Caliber.Az reports that new shipments of weaponry are being sent to Armenia from France and India via Iran. These shipments include one artillery division, consisting of 12 CAESAR self-propelled howitzers, dozens of air-to-air missiles, anti-tank rockets, and numerous German-made grenade launchers and anti-tank systems. Furthermore, the Armenian Armed Forces have received approximately 500 French-made disposable handheld rocket grenades and 50 American anti-tank missile systems. While we have already discussed the supply of French and US weapons to Armenia, the addition of German armaments to this mix represents a new development. It appears that Washington and Paris have succeeded in pressuring Berlin, which had previously maintained a neutral stance on the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict.

The Americans have once again surprised us. US Ambassador to Azerbaijan, Mark Libby, gave an interview to the Azerbaijani public television channel (ITV). This discussion was particularly timely, as numerous questions had accumulated for the US side. The host, Murad Huseynov, began the interview by referencing Caliber.Az and the article we had released. This concerned American aircraft that transported weapons and up to 50 personnel to Armenia in early August. In response to the question, Mr. Libby did not even attempt to provide evidence to the contrary; he simply dismissed Caliber.Az data as "nonsense."

Such a response from a diplomat only raises confusion. Baku keeps track of everything, takes notes, and continues pursuing its independent policy, building a security system not only in the region but also across broader Eurasian territories. In this context, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev paid a state visit to fraternal Uzbekistan. As a result of the meeting between delegations from the two countries, a series of agreements were signed aimed at further strengthening relations across various sectors. Most importantly, President Aliyev and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev signed a truly historic document—a treaty on allied relations. 

“Today, two brotherly nations, two independent, powerful, sovereign, and worthy states, have become official allies. This is a crucial foreign policy step that will shape our relations and, to a large extent, regional politics for the years to come,” the Azerbaijani leader said.

President Mirziyoyev, in turn, noted that Uzbekistan has few alliances, but never before has it signed such an agreement with any country in such a short period of time.  

"Today, we made history. This history will be realized for the benefit of the two close peoples of Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan," the Uzbek leader said. A key agenda item of the meeting was the agreement to establish a new light industry enterprise in the liberated city of Khankendi. 

The parties also held the first session of the Supreme Intergovernmental Council, an effective mechanism for developing and implementing new proposals to deepen the allied relations. According to the information released by the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, Azerbaijan has applied for membership in BRICS. Some analysts suggest that Azerbaijan's acceptance into the organization could be anticipated at the BRICS summit in Kazan this October. BRICS is increasingly strengthening its competitive edge over the G7, and by joining BRICS, Azerbaijan would have the opportunity to enhance its export potential and attract more foreign investment. 

UKRAINE – RUSSIA

The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue fortifying their positions in the areas of Russia's Kursk region under their control. All bridges over the Seim River were destroyed, which means that theoretically, the Ukrainians could advance into additional territories on the left bank of the river. 

One of the objectives of the Kursk operation was to divert some Russian units from the front line in the Donetsk region, particularly from the Pokrovsk direction, where there is a potential for an operational breakthrough by the Russian army. There has been no significant diversion of forces; all decisive resources are concentrated on the breakthrough in the Donetsk region. The Russians continue their push towards Pokrovsk, with fighting occurring just seven kilometers from the city. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been compelled to spread their resources due to the Kursk operation, which has impacted their effectiveness near Pokrovsk. 

On the other hand, many experts argue that Ukraine is inevitably facing defeat in the positional warfare in the Donetsk region, and Kyiv was left with no choice but to launch an asymmetrical strike in the Kursk region to leverage the occupied Russian territories as a negotiating tool. In the coming weeks, it will become clear how effective this strategy has been.

Middle East

The Israel Defense Forces have announced the destruction of the last Hamas brigade in Rafah and the completion of the operation in that city. Meanwhile, operations continue in Khan Younis. 

For the first time in 25 years, a case of poliomyelitis has been reported in the Gaza Strip. The dangerous infection was detected in a ten-month-old girl. The United Nations is preparing for a large-scale vaccination campaign to prevent the spread of the virus. Clearly, this will lead to increased calls for Israel to temporarily halt hostilities to facilitate the vaccination efforts. Meanwhile, Iran has yet to act on its promise to retaliate against Israel for the assassination of Hamas political bureau head Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Tehran has stated that it will not take action until negotiations between Israel and Hamas are concluded. 

Despite active involvement from the Americans, the negotiations have yet to yield results. In brief, Israel has agreed to a partial withdrawal of troops from Gaza. However, Hamas insists on a complete withdrawal, which has become one of the obstacles preventing an agreement. There is also a theory that Hamas is trying to derail the negotiations, hoping this will provoke an Iranian strike against Israel, thereby allowing Hamas to feel relief.

US

In Chicago, the Democratic Party held its convention, where Kamala Harris was officially confirmed as the presidential candidate. 

On the final day of the convention, Harris delivered what is currently the most significant speech of her political career, promising to be a president for all Americans. She subtly contrasted her approach with Trump's focus on the most conservative segments of society. In turn, Trump made a significant gesture towards undecided voters by promising to establish an independent presidential commission to investigate assassination attempts. 

This commission would also release the remaining documents related to the murder of former President John F. Kennedy. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a member of the Kennedy family and an independent presidential candidate, has announced the suspension of his campaign and his support for Trump’s candidacy.