Experts highlight three key factors in getting Türkiye approved to buy F-16s Untangling geopolitical imbroglio

Capping months of negotiations, the US government has approved a $23 billion deal to sell F-16 fighter jets to Türkiye, following Ankara's ratification of Sweden's NATO accession, the Hürriyet Daily News reported.

The State Department notified Congress of the deal, along with a separate $8.6 billion sale of 40 F-35 fighter jets to Greece, as required by US law.

The State Department said in a press release that Türkiye would receive 40 new F-16 fighter jets and upgrade 79 aircraft from its existing fleet.

An American official told the paper that the US had only given the go-ahead for the deal after receiving documents from Türkiye on the ratification of the Swedish accession, underlining the delicate nature of the negotiations.

Türkiye's green light for Sweden to join NATO leaves Hungary as the last dissenting voice in the accession process launched by Sweden and Finland to respond to Russia's military action in Ukraine," the paper said.

But Azerbaijan, Türkiye's closest ally, is most interested in what the brotherly country will gain from Washington's agreement to supply and modernise military aircraft. How will it affect Türkiye's regional weight and importance?

Foreign experts shared their views on this issue with Caliber.Az.

Türkiye's decision to ratify the deal that will finally allow it to join the alliance and the US response to unblock the F-16 situation is certainly positive news, says Eugenia Gaber, a senior analyst at the Atlantic Council and the Centre for Contemporary Türkiye Studies at Carleton University. And it's important for a number of reasons.

"Firstly, Türkiye has felt vulnerable to external threats all this time because it has not been able to fully ensure its own security with its own forces, with the efforts of the national military-industrial complex. Now many problems in this regard are being removed. It means the real threats that Türkiye perceived as threats are no longer so acute.

The fact that Türkiye could not get F-16s for a time led to a sense of vulnerability to external threats, whoever they were - Greece, Syria, and so on. And that, in turn, led to a growing crisis in Turkish-American relations, because Turkish experts, politicians, and the public saw the US as a country that could not be a strategic partner for Ankara, because it does nothing to strengthen Türkiye's defences and, on the contrary, supports forces that act against Türkiye - the Syrian Kurds, Greece, Armenia and so on. The conclusion of the current agreement on the supply of new fighter jets and the modernisation of the existing air fleet will remove all these threats - real or perceived. The fact that the US will simultaneously deliver F-35s to Greece maintains the regional balance in a certain sense, i.e. the dynamic in relations with Greece is also maintained, so such package deals are optimal in the sense that they do not lead to an arms race. On the other hand, they allow for the restoration of normal relations between Türkiye and other NATO partners," Gaber said.

The second point, she says, goes beyond Türkiye's national security and is about working with the Alliance.

"Because here we are not only talking about how Türkiye is going to use the F-16s but also about the NATO air force, about missile defence, about the air defence of the Alliance. Of course, against the background of, on the one hand, Russian aggression against Ukraine and, on the other hand, multiple crises in the region created or supported by Russia, against the background of how the Russia-Iran-China-DPRK axis, which threatens all countries in the region - Türkiye, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Western countries - is being created before our eyes, the fact that Türkiye is returning to full cooperation with NATO in air patrols, exchange of operational information and intelligence is important for regional security," the analyst believes.

And the third point, perhaps the key point, is a political and diplomatic one, says Gaber.

"Because when Türkiye could not get the Patriots from its Western partners and had to buy the S-400 from Russia, this triggered a process of sanctioning the defence complex of the country, including the top officials of this sector, and together with sanctioning other states, such as Canada - against a certain type of military technology production of Türkiye, together with sanctioning or embargoing the supply of certain sensitive technologies to these countries. This has led to a sharp rise in anti-American sentiment in Türkiye. Russia, for its part, has naturally tried to take full advantage of this situation to draw Türkiye into all kinds of Eurasian alliances, which have absolutely nothing to do with Türkiye and are even contrary to its national interests.

Well, this decision on the F-16s and the lifting of many anti-Turkish sanctions allows Türkiye to restore normal relations with Western countries, with NATO. It also sends a very clear message to Moscow that despite certain problems that certainly still exist in Ankara's relations with Western capitals, Türkiye is an important, key member of the Alliance. Relations with NATO partners are truly strategic, unlike Russia, where Türkiye's interests are primarily economic, and this is a clear message that the Black Sea will not become a Russian lake. Türkiye, together with the other members of the Alliance, Bulgaria and Romania, will continue to fulfil its obligations under the North Atlantic Treaty, and this essentially means shattering Russia's illusions that Ankara will somehow play along with Moscow in all the aggressive imperialist plans the Russian Federation harbours towards this part of the world. So the F-16 won, the S-400 lost, and I think this is the main result of all the agreements that we are seeing now," Gaber said.

Sergei Danilov, deputy director of the Kyiv-based Centre for Middle East Studies, pointed out that a few days before the news broke that the US State Department had agreed on a deal to supply 40 new F-16 fighter jets and upgrade another 80 older models to the latest units, observers spotted a modern Russian Mig-35 heavy fighter jet in Iranian air force colours in Iranian skies.

"The two countries, Türkiye and Iran, are not formally adversaries, there is a fairly intense political dialogue between Ankara and Tehran at all levels. Traditional rhetoric about close cooperation and respect for each other's interests is heard. Recently, however, there have been enough examples to show that the two countries' interests not only do not coincide but tend to clash.

Everyone remembers the unexpected manoeuvres that Iranian troops suddenly began to conduct near the borders of Azerbaijan against the backdrop of the restoration of its territorial integrity. At that time, the regime of the mullahs was using sabre-rattling near the borders of Azerbaijan as an instrument of pressure and intimidation. It is enough to recall the recent unprovoked shelling of Pakistan to see that the use of force is becoming an integral part of Tehran's foreign policy," the expert said.

According to him, it is clear that strengthening the IRI's military power is directly linked to allying with the Russian Federation.

"In the Middle East and South Caucasus region, the power factor continues to play an important role. Modernising the Turkish Air Force hardly plays a key role in this. The Republic of Türkiye's air force had about 200 F-16 multi-role fighters in service. About 80 of them were hopelessly outdated and were actually only used to fly. With the completion of the contract, Türkiye will have 120 aircraft with the latest modifications, which will significantly strengthen the capabilities of the Turkish Army," Danilov concluded.