Georgia: The looming threat of civil war External forces fueling tensions in the South Caucasus

Events in Georgia are increasingly reminiscent of the 2013 Ukrainian Maidan. External forces are seeking to turn the protest in the centre of Tbilisi into a permanent and increasingly radical movement. Despite the Georgian police's ability to disperse opposition rallies near the parliament on Rustaveli Avenue every night, these protests are becoming more aggressive with each passing day.

In their rush to "take over" Georgia by overthrowing its legitimate government, the West and its puppets are employing increasingly sophisticated and despicable methods. On November 30 and December 1, social media began circulating footage showing children participating in anti-government protests. Initially, seemingly peaceful scenes from Zugdidi showed children holding hands, wrapped in national flags, and marching with their parents to the rally. Parents were seemingly encouraged not to fear bringing their children to the protests.

But soon, the organizers of the coup began to coerce children not only into participating in protest rallies but also in violent actions, including attacks on law enforcement officers. Social media circulated footage showing, on the night of December 1-2, a child aged 5-7 throwing a bottle at police officers near the parliament. This was something that hadn't happened either during the Kyiv Maidan or in Minsk in 2020. From the footage, it appears that the bottle thrown by the child was not filled with incendiary substances.

However, there is a real possibility that children could be armed with more lethal objects in the future. It’s clear that police would be reluctant to respond for fear of injuring or killing a child. And if the police do respond, the opposition and Western media would immediately showcase images of injured or even dead children to paint the legitimate government as "criminals" in the eyes of the international community. Other sophisticated provocations may also occur, aimed at making the confrontation as bloody as possible.

Between the start of the "peaceful" protests over the government's suspension of EU integration and the first Molotov cocktails thrown at the police on the Maidan in Kyiv in late 2013 and early 2014, more than a month passed. In Tbilisi, by the end of 2024, the "Maidan" timeline has been compressed into just three days – there have already been instances of bottles filled with incendiary substances being thrown at the police. So, "time has been compressed."

At the same time, there is unprecedented pressure being exerted on Georgian civil servants and law enforcement officers, demanding that they turn against their government and support the pro-Western opposition and its actions. People are either being persuaded or coerced into writing "appeals" and resigning from their positions. This is an attempt to destabilize the state apparatus from within. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has been the most vulnerable to such external destructive actions. Georgia's ambassadors in key countries and foreign ministry staff have begun resigning one by one "in protest" against the policies of their legitimate government. Among them was the Georgian ambassador to the US, former Foreign Minister David Zalkaliani. Police officers are also being pressured to resign, with at least 80 already persuaded to do so. Simultaneously, through its agents in Georgia, the West has effectively started to create a parallel power structure.

"I will lead the political process while remaining your president. There is no legitimate parliament, so the illegitimate parliament cannot elect a new president, and therefore there cannot be an inauguration. My mandate remains valid until a legally elected parliament is in place, which will lawfully elect someone to replace me. I am with you and will remain with you," stated Salome Zourabichvili on the evening of November 30.

Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze has already stated that on December 29, 2024, Salome Zourabichvili will be forced to leave the presidential residence and hand over the building to the legitimately elected president. However, by that time, the organizers of the Tbilisi "Maidan" may attempt to escalate the situation into an armed confrontation.

The fact that "President-foreign agent" Salome Zourabichvili refused to comply with the demands of the Georgian Constitution and declared herself the "only legitimate authority" even after her term ended significantly complicates the situation. It is quite possible that among the treacherous civil servants, "alternative" power structures and "alternative security forces" will begin to form, leading to a situation of dual power in Georgia.

Additionally, the self-proclaimed "president" may assemble a "core" of a combat-capable army from Georgians fighting on the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Ukraine. It has been reported that commanders of Georgian units in the military committee of the "Caucasian Union" movement have decided to return from Ukraine to Georgia—they are waiting for a signal from Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili. "Commanders of Georgian units in the military committee of the 'Caucasian Union' decided at an emergency meeting to return to Georgia and are waiting for a signal from the President of Georgia!" wrote the leader of the "Caucasian Union," Lado Gamsakhurdia, on social media.

However, Zourabichvili herself has hastened to distance herself from her supporters outside Georgia, calling the report about the readiness of Georgian fighters in Ukraine to come to Tbilisi and support the protests a "provocation." This statement is understandable, as it is important for the Western curators of the Georgian "Maidan" to show that the protests supposedly rely on forces "exclusively within" Georgia. Yet, there is no doubt that pro-Western militants are already being deployed to Georgia. Since the "Caucasian Union" also includes anti-Russian representatives of the North Caucasian peoples, the question of opening a "second front" against Russia may be raised even "before" the completion of the coup in Georgia.

In Tbilisi, not only are we witnessing a repetition of what was seen in Kyiv during the 2013-2014 Maidan, but new, rather disturbing "inventions" from the protest organizers have begun to emerge, clearly showing that they are "rushing" to set Georgia ablaze. This suggests that if the unrest and the attempt at a coup, which is officially led by a French citizen and a member of the French intelligence services, Salome Zourabichvili, cannot be suppressed, war will quickly come to Georgia. Much faster than it did after the Maidan in Ukraine.

The Caucasus now truly "smells of war." The West is in a hurry, and the coup in Georgia is aimed to be completed before the inauguration of newly elected US President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, the instability in Georgia "cuts off" all communications passing through the region, significantly escalating the situation across Eurasia and making control over the South Caucasus a critical issue. If the current external "arsonists" succeed in igniting a civil war in Georgia, it will rapidly escalate into a "larger Caucasian war."

Vladimir Tskhvediani, Georgia, for Caliber.Az