Iran warns Israel against Caucasus presence, Azerbaijan ties Analysis by The Jerusalem

The Jerusalem Post has published an article saying that Iran’s increasing rhetoric seeks to target the Kurdish autonomous region and also neighbouring Azerbaijan. Caliber.Az reprints the article.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian warned Israel against a “presence” in the Caucasus during a meeting with Turkey’s foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu in Ankara this week. 

This is the most recent of a number of Iranian regime comments that have sought to spotlight Israel’s close ties with Azerbaijan and a part of a pattern of reports in which Iran has warned Israel against a role in the Caucasus, an area that borders northern Iran.

Iran International, a media group that tends to back the opposition to the Iranian regime, reported earlier this week that “Azerbaijan is to allow Israel to use its airfields in case of a possible attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities as part of their military cooperation.” Earlier this week, Middle East Monitor, which is generally critical of Israel, reported that Israel had sent flights “loaded with weapons” to Azerbaijan. 

Israel sent flights “loaded with weapons” to Azerbaijan

That article said that Baku’s defence needs are what led to the flights. Israeli weapons played an important role when fighting against Amenia restarted in the four-day war between the countries in April 2016 and especially during the Second Nagorna-Karabkah War in 2020. Al-Monitor also reported about the arms trade this week.  

These reports go back several years. An article at Middle East Institute in October 2021 noted that “the official Iranian narrative is that Baku has given Israel ample operational freedom to use Azerbaijani soil to stage operations deep inside Iran. The latest charge from Tehran is that Israel’s theft of droves of sensitive nuclear files in 2018 involved the use of Azerbaijan as a staging ground for an operation that humiliated Iran’s leadership and intelligence services.”

The report went on to note that “this time around, however, Tehran seems to be doubly apprehensive. It sees Israel intensifying its efforts to move closer to the Iranian homeland as a way of pressuring Iran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has warned all of Iran’s neighbours against what he called ‘interference of foreigners in the region’ as a ‘source of discord and damage.’ In a direct jab at Baku, Khamenei promised retribution to those neighbouring states that collaborate with the Israelis.” 

In December, Haaretz reported that “Azerbaijan’s Ambassador in the U.S.: We Won’t Allow Israel to Attack Iran From Our Territory…Following Azerbaijan’s announcement that it is opening an embassy in Tel Aviv, the country's ambassador to the U.S. tells Haaretz that Israel's new government will have no effect on relations – and that their ties will have no impact on UN votes.” Pro-Iranian Al-Mayadeen media re-reported this story, evidentially due to Iran’s interest in this issue.  

In January, The National in the UAE had an op-ed that said “not only did Tehran wake up to a deeper Israeli and Turkish footprint on its northern border but Russia’s inability to keep Turkey and Israel out of the South Caucasus was probably the bigger shock to Tehran.” In February the Washington Post made a similar claim. “Azerbaijan and Iran — majority Shiite Muslim countries that share strong ethnic and linguistic ties and centuries of history — saw the worst escalation in their tense relations in January when the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran came under an armed attack. That followed Iran’s military buildup on its border with Azerbaijan in a dispute between the neighbours over Israel.”   

Iran has increased its rhetoric about what it describes as “foreign forces” in the Caucasus region. The Iranian Foreign Ministry has increasingly put out these kinds of messages. Iran says it supports the |sovereignty and territorial integrity of the countries including Azerbaijan and Armenia, and this approach is the permanent policy of Iran,” Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said in a telephone conversation with his Azerbaijani counterpart Jeyhun Bayramov in October 2022.  

Iran has increased its rhetoric again

Now Iran has increased its rhetoric again. Iran made the warnings in a meeting with Turkey which is likely a message to Ankara and Baku because Iran knows Turkey and Azerbaijan are close partners. Iran says that the alleged Israeli presence is a “serious threat to regional peace and security,” according to the Tehran Times and Iran’s Tasnim News. “Presence of Israel in the Caucasus is one of the important concerns, and Iran warns all sides to act vigilantly toward Israel and don’t provide an excuse for the presence of Israel in the Caucasus,” the Iranian foreign minister insisted. 

Tehran’s rhetoric comes amid rising Israel-Iran tensions and Iran’s nuclear enrichment. Iran has been enriching uranium beyond 84% and there are concerns about Iran’s potential for weaponizing its nuclear program, which would not only lead to Iran’s “breakout” to become a threshold nuclear power or actual nuclear power.

In the past, pro-Iranian militias in Iraq have also made claims about Israel operating from Azerbaijan and Iran and pro-Iran militias in Iraq have often accused the Kurdistan autonomous region in Iraq of being a place where Israel has operated. This shows how Iran’s increasing rhetoric seeks to target the Kurdish autonomous region and also neighbouring Azerbaijan. The decision to increase the accusations in meetings with the Turkish foreign minister in Ankara shows how Iran is increasingly concerned about this issue. The comments also took place as Turkey, Iran and Russia will have a meeting next week where diplomats from the three countries will hold talks.