Pundit warns: Armenia risks becoming second Syria or Gaza

Yerevan's steps to leave the CSTO security zone, in the absence of prospects and guarantees of joining the NATO system, will lead to the fact that in fact, Armenia will become a ‘shadow zone’, where no security system will operate.

Political scientist Stepan Danielyan expressed this opinion in a conversation with Armenian journalists, Caliber.Az reports.

Earlier it was reported that at the meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Moscow on October 8, an agreement was reached on the withdrawal of the Russian military from the checkpoints on the Armenian-Iranian border, where Armenian border guards will take their place.

"At the moment, it is difficult to express an unequivocal point of view, as the current Armenian government is not always guided by strategic decisions and imagines the future prospects. However, we see that the pressure from the West is increasing, and the Armenian authorities consider this pressure by taking appropriate steps," the expert noted.

According to him, an absurd situation has been created around Armenia, where the West at a rather high level openly demands to remove Russian border guards from the Iranian and Turkish borders but does not assume any obligations regarding ensuring security. This absurdity also affects the policy of the current Armenian authorities, who are, in fact, taking steps to withdraw from the CSTO in the absence of any NATO guarantees.

At the same time, he added that the Armenian authorities' steps toward European orientation remain half-hearted, with Russia's economic influence on Armenia playing a restraining role. In other words, on the one hand, Russian border guards will remain on Armenia's borders with Iran and Türkiye, and on the other hand, Armenian NSS officers will control the checkpoints.

Meanwhile, the pro-Western orientation of the Armenian government is also constrained by the factor of developing economic ties between Yerevan and Tehran, the political analyst notes.

"Naturally, the West is concerned about the influence of Russia and Iran in the South Caucasus. High-ranking Western officials openly express interest in the Turkic 'middle corridor' to be formed under the influence of the West and Türkiye. At the same time, the Armenian government is not sure what consequences its pro-Western policies might lead to and whether they will receive real support from the West in terms of security," the political analyst stressed.

Danielyan believes that in relations with the West and Russia, official Yerevan is making temporary decisions in the context of uncertainty about the future world order. In his opinion, the main decisions will be made by the Armenian authorities in the future, depending on geopolitical processes. If they develop in favour of Russia and Iran, then, naturally, the Armenian government will make another ‘turn’ towards Moscow, the expert believes.

In conclusion, he presented his vision of the further development of events in the case of the final withdrawal of the Russian military from the territory of Armenia. In such a case, nothing will prevent Türkiye from introducing troops into Armenia, he believes.

In turn, Iran, proceeding from its national interests, may introduce its troops. The West will also become significantly active in Armenia. As a result, Armenia may become an arena of geopolitical war. In this case, the political analyst fears that the policy of the current government will lead to Armenia becoming the second Syria or the second Gaza.

By Tamilla Hasanova