Russian aviation agency’s statement on Azerbaijani plane crash More questions than answers

The statement by Dmitry Yadrov, head of the Russian Federal Agency for Air Transport (Rosaviatsiya), regarding the crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) plane near Aktau has raised several questions.

While it is reassuring that the Russian side has expressed its willingness to cooperate in the investigation, there are still many unanswered questions surrounding the incident.

For the first time, at least in recent memory, Russia has acknowledged that on the morning of December 25, a "Carpet Plan" was implemented near Grozny. In aviation circles, the "Carpet Plan" refers to a closed airspace mode, meaning that all aircraft within the affected area are required to either land immediately or leave the zone. This raises a number of questions: why didn’t the arrival airport’s air traffic controllers warn the approaching aircraft from Azerbaijan about the danger? Why wasn’t the Azerbaijani aircraft redirected in time? The flight data recorder’s analysis will likely reveal that no warning was issued by the controllers; had it been, the captain would have immediately made the necessary decision.

If the "Carpet Plan" was activated, it implies that the air defence system was in operation. This further supports the Azerbaijani side’s claim that the Embraer aircraft was attacked by a Pantsir-S1 missile system.

According to the head of Rosaviatsiya, the commander of the Azerbaijani aircraft was offered alternative airports, but he chose to head for Aktau. This claim is hard to believe; otherwise, Captain Kshnyakin likely would not have flown over the sea towards Kazakhstan. On the other hand, it is possible that the crew was offered an airport in Moscow, St. Petersburg, or another Russian city far from Grozny, but the commander may have realized that his severely damaged and hard-to-control aircraft might not make it to the proposed airports. Moreover, where is the evidence that the Azerbaijani aircraft was indeed offered landing options in other Russian cities?

In any case, the investigation into the circumstances of the crash may take a long time. However, there is no doubt that the Azerbaijani aircraft was attacked in the skies over Grozny, and this was the primary cause of the crash. If this is clear to everyone, why has the official Russian side still not apologized to the Azerbaijani people?