Swedish intelligence chief: Real inflation in Russia far higher than official data

Head of Sweden’s military intelligence, Thomas Nilsson, has stated that real inflation in Russia is significantly higher than official figures suggest and is likely closer to the country’s key interest rate of 15%.

In an interview with the Financial Times, he said Moscow systematically distorts its economic statistics to convince the international community that external pressure is ineffective and that the country can sustain elevated military spending.

According to Swedish intelligence assessments, Russia’s budget deficit is underestimated by roughly $30 billion (2.26 trillion rubles), while leading financial indicators point to a potential banking sector crisis.

Nilsson said that Moscow would need to maintain oil prices above $100 per barrel for a prolonged period to cover its budget deficit, adding that even this would not resolve deeper structural economic problems.

He also noted that temporary increases in hydrocarbon revenues due to the conflict in Iran are unlikely to materially change the overall situation.

Swedish conclusions broadly align with assessments by Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service BND regarding the Russian economy.

By Bakhtiyar Abbasov