Wars Azerbaijan could be dragged into…

Political analyst and head of the Centre for South Caucasus Studies, Farhad Mammadov, has analysed the risks of wars in the region that Azerbaijan could be drawn into in his Telegram channel.

“The geography of the South Caucasus is such that the potential for conflict is assessed as very high. Our region is a frontier, no matter how you look at it… A frontier between continents, between military-political and economic blocs, between large and powerful neighbours…

For three decades, Azerbaijan was in conflict with Armenia. Alongside the de-occupation of its territory, Baku made efforts to break free from the constraints of conflict management, imposed largely by Russia and, to a lesser extent, by the US and Europe. With occupied territories existing, Azerbaijan ensured maximum sovereignty.  

The 44-day war of 2020 and the anti-terror operations of 2023 created conditions for changes in the region that are now occurring in a peaceful atmosphere, with the main actors being the countries of the region themselves.

As the President of Azerbaijan noted: “…I am confident that from now on the Azerbaijani people will live in conditions of peace.”

The peace agenda with Armenia is expanding and deepening. The parliamentary elections in Armenia in June 2026 should mark a point of no return in the peace process…

However, situations are developing around the South Caucasus, and in international relations generally, in which Azerbaijan could become involved in a war. Let us try to consider the possible options in order of their relevance.

Iran

Military operations against Iran by the US and Israel. During the 12-day war in 2025, the South Caucasus remained outside of active military operations. Given that the goal of the current strikes may be a change of regime in Iran, the Iranian authorities could fight differently. At the very least, based on the experience of the previous war, strikes may begin with sabotage against Iran’s military-political leadership, and as a result new people may come to power whose decisions are highly unpredictable and could affect Azerbaijan.

A civil war in Iran between supporters of the current regime and its diverse opponents. In this case, a situation of chaos may develop in the border areas, with uncontrolled armed groups forming that will see the border as a line they must push the enemy back from. Azerbaijan could be on the front line here, and Baku would have to react to maintain the security of its borders.

Russia

A direct military invasion of one of the South Caucasus countries, or a repeat of a special military operation similar to the one in Venezuela. However, Russia is not succeeding with its special military operations—what begins as a special operation often ends up as an ordinary conquest war. This scenario remains relevant, despite the ongoing war in Ukraine.

If relations between Putin and Trump worsen—which is possible—Russia would have to respond in regions where the US has no security commitments. Simply put, the South Caucasus countries are on the list of countries for which the US would not threaten Russia with nuclear weapons in the event of a Russian invasion.

Armenia

If pro-Russian forces win the parliamentary elections in Armenia, Russia could, within the framework of its alliance obligations, increase its military presence in Armenia and use border disputes to escalate the situation.

The most extravagant scenario is that, even if pro-Russian forces lose the elections, Russia recognises that political force as the winner and the legitimate government, in order to use their appeals as a pretext for military invasion. This is a high-stakes gamble for which Moscow currently lacks the resources.

Wars of Türkiye

Azerbaijan is a military-political ally of Türkiye with an obligation to provide military assistance if called upon. In most cases, these agreements are viewed as Türkiye providing military assistance to Azerbaijan, but the modern historical period could make Azerbaijani military assistance to Türkiye relevant. In the event of NATO’s collapse, a security vacuum would open in the Black Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean. The Middle East also remains a hotspot of instability, although the overall situation is creating favourable conditions for Türkiye,” writes Farhad Mammadov.