Yerevan's unprincipled behaviour fuels Macron's South Caucasus ambitions France's new colony on the way?

The French government is taking another swipe at Azerbaijan. The new French Foreign Minister, Stephane Sejourne, delivered a speech to the diplomatic corps in which he stated that "France will continue to support Armenia".

"It is necessary to seek a just and lasting peace based on respect for the law and territorial integrity, and it is also necessary to guarantee the right of the population to live in dignity, respecting its memory, history and culture," said the foreign minister. This is not surprising, since Stéphane Sejourne, as we recall, is one of the most ardent Armenianophiles and has defended Armenia's interests both in France and in the European Parliament. He is also the initiator of several anti-Azerbaijani resolutions adopted by the European Parliament.

It is well known that Paris has always had a pro-Armenian tendency in its policy. However, under previous presidents, France at least tried to maintain a certain balance, which the current Elysee has completely forgotten. Macron has brought bilateral relations between Baku and Paris to a critical point. They are on the verge of breaking. Needless to say, behind the ostensible support of Armenia's interests are primarily Paris's imperial aims in the Caucasus, which have intensified against the background of the socio-economic crisis in France and after a series of its foreign policy failures in Africa. Having lost his previous positions in the Sahel, Macron is trying to squeeze into the South Caucasus in the hope of undoing his image of a pathological loser. In confirmation of this, we can recall that Macron recently spoke of "the salvation of Armenia" in his welcome speech to the French armed forces, but interestingly he mentioned Armenia in the context of "the defence of its overseas territories".

"In 2024, we will work tirelessly to ensure the defence of our overseas territories. We will face up to the responsibilities of the great nation that we are. I will not list them here in detail. I could mention the Balkans, Armenia, which are attracting our attention and leading us to strengthen our position and take historic decisions, especially concerning Armenia, which I have just mentioned," Macron said.

In other words, the French leader outlined his vision of Armenia's future as a French colony. In this context, it is reasonable to ask: how does it feel for Armenia to see itself as an "overseas territory" of France? Or to realise that Yerevan is the only instrument through which France wants to enter the South Caucasus?

At the same time, France's imperial plan to gain a "bridgehead of influence" in the South Caucasus is not an easy task because of the factors of Azerbaijan, Türkiye and Russia. In this regard, it is appropriate to note the statements of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev that France is preparing the ground for a new war in the region and is disrupting stability in the South Caucasus.

"France is pursuing a militaristic policy, arming Armenia, encouraging revanchist forces in Armenia, preparing the ground for unleashing new wars in our region," President Aliyev said last November at the conference "De-colonisation: Women's Empowerment and Development".

The head of state noted that France, which currently governs 13 overseas territories as its colonies, as well as interfering in the internal affairs of its former colonies located on different continents of the world, continues the policy of neo-colonialism despite the long-standing demands of international organisations and peoples fighting for independence.

By the way, the Georgian expert community has a similar opinion about the French military supplies to Armenia. For example, political scientist Levan Chkheidze believes that France's sending weapons to Armenia is aimed at Paris taking advantage of the geopolitical situation in the world and creating a new conflict in the Caucasus. According to him, France's arms sales to Armenia are directed not only against Azerbaijan but also a challenge to Iran and Türkiye.

Another Georgian expert Vaso Kapanadze is sure that such steps by France to arm Armenia are unacceptable.

In turn, Georgian political scientist, Director of the Centre for Islamic Studies of Caucasus-Georgia Shota Apkhaidze, commenting on the consequences of strengthening France's positions in Armenia, as well as the issue of French arms supplies to Armenia through Georgia, focused on the general policy of Europe in the region. According to the expert's assessments, the West is not interested in the final normalisation of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, so it strives in every possible way to rekindle the torch of war in the Caucasus.

"But this does not prevent Europeans from buying oil and gas from Azerbaijan. That is, on the one hand, the West unjustifiably criticises Azerbaijan because it solved the Karabakh problem on its own, and returned its ancestral territories, on the other hand, it does not stop cooperating with Baku, and at the same time arms Armenia, which is an unambiguous manifestation of double standards.

As for France's policy towards Azerbaijan, it is directly linked to the position of Macron, who is essentially an intriguer engaged in political speculation. Undoubtedly, any military supplies are designed to increase tension in the region, and in this case, official Paris is counting on it.

You are asking why Georgia allowed the transit of arms to Armenia through its territory. Georgia has international agreements on this issue with Armenia, Azerbaijan and Europe, which it could not violate. Taking into account that Georgia has become a candidate for EU accession, it cannot make steps that would contradict the agreements reached," the expert explained, adding that Georgia takes a neutral position in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

According to Apkhaidze's assessment, the West's policy in the South Caucasus poses a devastating threat to Armenia, as well as other countries in the region, including, among others, Russia, Iran and Türkiye.

"However, France's chances of squeezing into our region are practically nil. Paris does not have the relevant capabilities to do so, but it can provoke new clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan. And in this case, no 'Bastions' will be able to protect Armenia from the blows of Azerbaijan's 'Iron Fist'," Apkhaidze summarised.