Armenia may commit provocation upon France’s instructions Risk of war looms

Armenia is still carrying out its policy of militarisation of the South Caucasus. It actively purchases weapons from Paris and New Delhi to replenish its military arsenal, which has become rather depleted after the 44-day second Karabakh war in 2020. 

Armenian Defence Minister Suren Papikyan said in an interview with Public TV Company earlier this month that France and India had become Yerevan’s main military-technical partners and boasted that there has been great progress in diversifying arms acquisition.

Earlier, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan also confirmed in an interview with the Public Radio of Armenia that Yerevan is looking for countries to establish military-technical cooperation and referred to the fact that Yerevan cannot continue implementing the concept of reforming the Armenian Armed Forces with Russia.

“Previously, 95-97 per cent of our relations in the defence sector accounted for the Russian Federation. However, this situation has changed for both objective and subjective reasons,” Pashinyan assured.

Apparently, India has become the main supplier of weapons to Armenia over the past two years. In particular, Yerevan purchased the Akash air defense missile system, Pinaka multiple rocket launchers, Konkurs anti-tank guided missile systems manufactured under a Russian patent, 80 mm and 155 mm howitzers and other weapons from New Delhi.

Baku is dissatisfied with the supply of Indian weapons to Armenia. Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov stated at a briefing in December 2023 that according to India’s official position, its arms supplies to Armenia are not related to  Azerbaijan’s friendly relations with Türkiye and Pakistan.

“However, Azerbaijan cannot consider this as pure commerce as its lands were under occupation for 30 years. Armenia and India stated that this is commerce rather than sabotage towards Azerbaijan. This is their official position. We know that revanchist sentiments are still strong in Armenia, and such weapon supply strengthens them even more,” Bayramov said.

“India must resist the Türkiye-Azerbaijan-Pakistan axis in the South Caucasus region as Pakistan is our old enemy. That is why India supplies military equipment to Armenia,” Head of the Usanas Foundation Abhinav Pandya operating in India said in an interview with ETV Bharat.

That is, the Indian analyst confirmed India’s geopolitical interest in military supplies to Yerevan, which Baku understands well.

As for France, it supplied Bastion armoured vehicles, three Ground Master 200 medium-range radars produced by Thales Group, and Mistral anti-aircraft missile systems produced by MBDA company. French Armed Forces Minister Sebastien Lecornu said at a recent joint briefing with his Armenian counterpart in Yerevan that if Armenia needs short- and medium-range missiles, they will be supplied.

The militarisation of the region is in the interests of France and Armenia is ready to blindly follow the orders of Paris. These are obvious facts. Proceeding from the fact that Armenia is being intensively provided with weapons, Yerevan and Paris are preparing for armed provocations. They intend to launch provocations by blaming Azerbaijan. This information campaign has been going on for quite a long time to spread lies about our country. So, Armenia is being quickly provided with arms. The main slogan of this campaign is already heard everywhere - “Azerbaijan is preparing to attack Armenia”.

In this regard, the commentary of Russian military expert Alexander Khramchikhin is of interest.

“Even though India and France are providing Yerevan with weapons, nothing will help the Armenians,” he said.

“It is not serious to talk about Armenia’s current military arsenal. As for assumptions about the likelihood of a new war in the region, a war may occur if Yerevan upon France’s instructions tries to commit a military provocation. Then Azerbaijan will decide to finally destroy Armenia. The military arsenals of Yerevan and Baku are incomparable,” Khramchikhin said.

While providing Armenia with weapons, France and India are acting in their own interests. It is extremely important for them to spark a new war in the South Caucasus. The matter rests on geopolitical gain rather than commercial one. France dreams of gaining a foothold in the region while India wants to harm the alliance of Azerbaijan, Türkiye and Pakistan. Yerevan understand this. However, it is facilitating the ambitions of France and India by greatly jeopardising its own security.