Azerbaijan takes on Armenia’s ageing S-300s with Chinese HQ-9BE missiles, Pakistani JF-17C block III jets Forbes on new reality in Caucasus

Forbes magazine recently published an in-depth article by Paul Iddon, a senior contributor specialising in aerospace and defence, examining the shifting military balance in the South Caucasus. In his analysis, Iddon focuses on the stark contrast between Azerbaijan’s modernising forces—equipped with Chinese HQ-9BE missiles and Pakistan-supplied JF-17C Block III fighter jets—and Armenia’s ageing Soviet-era S-300 air defence systems. The article underscores not only the technological disparities but also the broader implications for regional stability, deterrence, and strategic planning in a historically tense theatre. Caliber.Az presents selected excerpts from the piece.

"Two overlapping developments in the South Caucasus perfectly highlighted the military imbalance between Azerbaijan and Armenia on the fifth anniversary of the 2020 Karabakh War.

Azerbaijan publicly displayed its new Chinese-made HQ-9BE strategic air defence missile systems at a victory parade in Baku for the first time on Nov. 8. Days earlier, photos emerged indicating that Baku had acquired the system.

The HQ-9BE could significantly reinforce Azerbaijan’s already formidable air defences, which include the strategic Russian S-300 PMU-2 and advanced, medium-range Israeli Barak MX.

During the same parade, Azerbaijan showcased its JF-17C Block III fighter jets, which it acquired from Pakistan, for the first time. That acquisition marks a huge upgrade for its modest fighter fleet. Baku has ordered 40 of these advanced aircraft, which would dwarf the other two air forces in the South Caucasus and possibly even rival that of its southern neighbour, Iran.

As all of this was going on, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan also mentioned the 2020 war, which represented an utterly devastating defeat and strategic setback for the Armenian military.

In response to a former president, Serzh Sargsyan, who questioned how Azerbaijan had destroyed half of Armenia’s air defences so swiftly five years ago, Pashinyan blamed his predecessor for leaving behind an inadequate system.
“SS stated that he couldn’t understand how it was possible to lose half of the air defence assets in the first hours of a 44-day war,” Pashinyan wrote on his official Facebook. “It’s not hard: the air defence system you left behind-not just individual assets, but the air defence system as a whole-was scrap metal.”

During the 2020 war, Israeli-made Harop loitering munitions smashed into Armenia’s strategic S-300 systems, destroying them. Furthermore, the four Su-30SM fighter jets Armenia acquired from Russia the year before the war weren’t used, leading to accusations that they represented a white elephant for the Armenian military. Ironically, in the months leading up to the war, the Su-30SM acquisition was dubbed by critics as “overkill” on Yerevan’s part.

The critical lack of aerial cover enabled Azerbaijani drones to routinely hit the Armenian forces from the air, destroying over 200 of their main battle tanks. 

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s arms transfers database records Armenia receiving short-range Tor-M1 systems from Russia and second-hand Russian-made short-range Osa-AK systems from Jordan in 2019. Aside from that, Armenia had older second-hand, Russian-made 2K11 Krug medium-range systems acquired in the early 1990s and long-range S-300PS systems.

Azerbaijan also operates medium-range Russian Buk-1Ms acquired from Belarus in the early 2010s. Furthermore, while both countries have S-300s, the PMU-2 variant operated by Azerbaijan is considerably more sophisticated than the older, second-hand S-300PS used by Yerevan.

In the aftermath of the 2020 war, Armenia has significantly reduced its reliance on Russia for military hardware, which had previously been overwhelming. Since then, it has turned to France and India as alternative sources, buying artillery, multiple launch rocket systems, and, of course, air defences.

Regarding air defence, France agreed to supply Armenia with advanced radars and short-range Mistral air defences, suitable for point defence. Armenia became the first foreign buyer of India’s indigenous Akash-S1 medium-range air defence missile system, receiving its first batch in November 2024.

Armenia recently denied reports that it will acquire an Indian variant of the Su-30, the Su-30MKI. However, it wouldn’t come as a surprise if Yerevan ultimately acquires such fighter jets from New Delhi or enlists its services to modify or upgrade its modest fleet of four Flankers," Iddon wrote.

By Aghakazim Guliyev