Baku at the center: Netanyahu’s visit marks turning point in regional diplomacy Article by Newsweek

The US-based publication Newsweek has featured an article by Joseph Epstein and Alex Grinberg examining the forthcoming visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Baku. Caliber.Az offers its readers the analysis of the piece.

The article provides a strategic and nuanced analysis of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s forthcoming visit to Baku, positioning it as a critical diplomatic event with broad implications for regional and global politics.

The article outlines the deepening trilateral cooperation between Israel, Azerbaijan, and the United States, while also framing Azerbaijan as a key mediator in the deteriorating relationship between Israel and Türkiye. The piece emphasizes realpolitik, mutual interests, and shifting alliances as central to understanding the developing triangle.

Netanyahu’s visit to Azerbaijan is portrayed not merely as routine diplomacy but as a wartime necessity. As the article states, “A wartime leader can only afford to leave when necessary—and visiting Azerbaijan is a necessity.” This underscores the strategic weight of Azerbaijan in Israeli foreign policy, especially since this will be Netanyahu's first visit to a Muslim-majority nation since the war against Hamas began on October 7, 2023.

A central theme is the proposed inclusion of Azerbaijan in the Abraham Accords, first mentioned by Newsweek in December 2023. The idea has gained traction among "Israeli, US and Azerbaijani circles," with support from government figures and diplomats alike. The article draws a stark contrast between Azerbaijan and previous signatories like the UAE and Bahrain, noting that “Azerbaijan... may be its [Israel’s] closest ally after the United States.”

The metaphor from Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev — describing bilateral relations as an iceberg with “nine-tenths under the surface” — powerfully captures the discreet but profound depth of cooperation. This includes Azerbaijan's military procurement of Israeli technology and its role as a major energy supplier to Israel.

The article highlights Azerbaijan’s growing stake in Israel’s energy sector, particularly through SOCAR’s acquisition of shares in the Tamar gas fields and rights to further exploration. This deepens the economic interdependence between the two nations and raises the stakes of their partnership, both economically and geopolitically.

Baku’s role as a strategic intermediary is presented as critical. The article reminds readers that Azerbaijan was instrumental in the Turkish-Israeli rapprochements of 2016 and 2021. It notes that “Azerbaijani top diplomat Hikmet Hajiyev shuttled between Jerusalem and Ankara to prevent any accidental clashes between Turkish and Israeli troops,” especially in the volatile post-Assad Syrian landscape.

The fall of the Assad regime is cited as a game-changer, with both Türkiye and Israel now asserting influence in northern and southern Syria, respectively. The article raises the possibility of a peace arrangement, quoting Syrian president Ahmed al-Sharaa’s apparent openness to joining the Abraham Accords if Israeli military actions cease and US recognition of Syria’s territorial unity is assured. This shift—potentially backed by Türkiye—marks a significant geopolitical turn.

The authors conclude with a powerful summation: “The success of these Israeli and Azerbaijani initiatives and the alliance overall comes from a simple realization—a win for one is a win for both.” This reflects the deep alignment of interests that underpin the relationship, from shared concerns over Iran to overlapping security and economic objectives.

"Azerbaijan is a leading country in the Muslim world in all that concerns normalizing relations with Israel, even before the Abrahamic States," said George Deek, Israel's ambassador to Azerbaijan, in an interview with JNS on April 29. He further emphasized that Azerbaijan seeks to be "part of that forum of moderate countries that is in favor of prosperity and flourishing, and against Islamic extremism."

Alex Grinberg is an Iran expert at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and a research fellow at the Begin Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.

Joseph Epstein is the director for research at the Endowment for Middle East Truth (EMET), a senior fellow at the Yorktown Institute, and a research fellow at the Begin Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.