How domestic political uncertainty could play into hands of Russia, China US in transition

US allies in NATO and the European Union fear that in the event of a possible withdrawal of US President Joe Biden's candidacy for the election, the country's opponents, in particular Russia and China, will be able to sow discord in the country, Gazeta.ru says. The article notes that the fears are not related to Biden's ability to make decisions, because he is surrounded by sensible people.

Also, US allies admit the possibility of Donald Trump's return to the White House. The main concern is that the US cannot provide stability in times of uncertainty, CNN emphasizes. If Biden withdraws from the presidential race at such a late stage, it could undermine the entire electoral process, allowing China and Russia to rain down criticism on the US democratic system, the article notes.

How valid are such concerns? Can China and Russia really conduct such a powerful campaign of criticism of the US democratic system that it will be able to sow discord in the US?

American experts shared their insights on the situation with Caliber.Az.

David Sutter, an American political scientist, publicist and expert on US-Russia relations, believes that Russia and China cannot influence the United States.

"Although it is very late for Biden to withdraw from the presidential race, the process will still be democratic, because even if another candidate chosen at the Democratic Party convention emerges in his place, he will still participate in a legitimate election," Sutter said.

Andrei Korobkov, professor of political science and international relations at Middle Tennessee University  noted that the main intrigue now is not who will win the election and what the policies of the second Biden administration will be, but whether he will be able to make it to the end of his first term.

"With six more months to go, who is really in control of the country? More and more attention is now being paid to the role played by members of Biden's large and highly dysfunctional family (especially his wife Jill, his sister Valerie), members of his tight circle of friends, most of whom are in their 80s (Ted Kaufman is 85, for example), who apparently act as leading advisors and are able to guide Joe Biden's actions.

So to say that anyone can now frame the situation in the country as unstable... It was already completely unstable, and the irony is that the Democrats have driven themselves into this situation by essentially preventing other members of the Democratic Party from running in the primaries by pushing Kennedy out. Biden's condition was obvious to the majority, but representatives of the Democratic establishment created for themselves such a virtual reality, where they somehow did not see what the whole country and the whole world saw," the professor said.

And now, he notes, they've really driven both themselves and the country into a dead end, as the Democrats are virtually unable to remove Biden - he can only leave voluntarily, but he's not going to do that.

“They are unable to identify a viable alternative candidate, as Vice President Harris is perceived as the de facto successor within a party that prioritizes group representation over individual effectiveness. Any other candidate aspiring to effectively challenge Trump would encounter insurmountable hurdles, including difficulties with registration, legitimization at the party convention, and crucially, gaining voter recognition," the political scientist explained.

Therefore, he believes, indeed the country has entered a period of turbulence together with the Democratic Party, and naturally this can be used by opponents, naturally there will be some information throw-ins.

"But these throw-ins will reflect reality, they will really reflect the crisis of the political system that we are facing.

Trump’s potential policy directions are well-documented from his prior time in office. His administration is anticipated to pursue a return to a state of normalcy akin to the policies of Warren G. Harding from the 1920s, emphasizing demands on allies, especially NATO members, to bear their own defence costs. Furthermore, there will likely be a continuation of the strategy begun under Obama and upheld by both Trump and Biden, which focuses on the creation of new military alliances in the Pacific. Trump is also expected to maintain strong support for Israel and oppose Iran. Overall, Trump’s policy framework is well-known and lacks any particularly novel elements.

Regarding Europe, Trump’s policy was intrinsically linked to the objective shifts in the global system, characterized by the weakening of the Eurocentric framework and the rise of new centers of power. The US is increasingly focused on creating a system that counters its primary rival, China. Europe, which is losing its economic significance, is also diminishing in political and military importance—this is an inevitable and long-term process. While this reality is deeply uncomfortable for Europeans, it is an objective fact that must be recognized sooner or later," Korobkov underlined.

In his turn, analyst and journalist Samson Katzman said that the first presidential debate held in the United States on June 27 left a heavy impression on everyone who watched it both in the country and in the world.

"Probably the main question that millions of viewers asked themselves was whether the 330-million-strong country failed, failed to find more worthy contenders than 81-year-old Democrat Biden and 78-year-old Republican Trump. And if the Republican candidate looked a little bit more cheerful, Biden was a sorry sight.

“It seems that the 'court'—the elite of the Democratic Party—has become so enmeshed in their own games that they have failed to identify a viable candidate. Both President Biden’s chances of re-election, should he remain in the race, and the prospects of any other Democratic candidate who might be hastily selected to replace him with just four months before the election, are quite slim.

Potential alternatives to the incumbent president include California Governor Gavin Newsom, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and even Michelle Obama, Barack Obama's wife. The Wall Street Journal and Reuters have named Vice President Kamala Harris as the most likely replacement for Biden should he decide to withdraw from the race,” the jourbalist stated.

"Many observers are questioning whether, and to what extent, domestic political instability in the United States during the transition period will be leveraged by its main geopolitical rivals, Russia and China. Could they initiate a campaign aimed at undermining the American democratic system to advance their own objectives? The answer to this question is affirmative. Such attempts have been made in the past—consider, for example, Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential election—and they will undoubtedly be pursued again.

Russia’s goal is to alter America’s stance in its protracted conflict with Ukraine. Putin would also benefit from a reduction in American military support for Western Europe. In this regard, Trump represents a highly desirable candidate for him. Similarly, China anticipates a weakening of the US role in international affairs, which would bolster its hegemonic ambitions in Southeast Asia and on the global stage.

However, there is a silver lining to these impending events. There is a strong likelihood that this crisis will drive the US political system towards necessary reforms, moving away from the era of political populism and addressing the pressing issues confronting both the country and the world," Katzman concluded.