Opposition triumphs in Gyumri as Pashinyan's hold weakens in local vote Has the “Barbecue Revolution” lost its fire?

The defeat of Armenia’s ruling Civil Contract party was entirely predictable. This is evident from the initial results of the elections to the Council of Elders in Parakar and Gyumri. The numbers speak for themselves: Volodya Grigoryan, the opposition Unity bloc’s candidate for mayor of Parakar in the Armavir region, emerged victorious.

According to preliminary results, the Unity bloc secured 55% of the vote, surpassing Ludwig Gyulnazaryan, the candidate from the ruling Civil Contract party.

It is worth recalling that Volodya Grigoryan represents the Country for Life party, which was founded on August 15, 2021, by Mesrop Arakelyan, Armenia’s former Minister of Labor and Social Affairs, and Mane Tandilyan. Mane Tandilyan was unanimously elected as the party’s chairperson.

But who is Mane Tandilyan? She is the same figure who, on December 2, 2020, was appointed "Minister of Social and Housing Affairs" in the self-proclaimed "NKR" by Arayik Harutyunyan, the former head of the Karabakh junta.

The Russian-Armenian oligarch Ruben Vardanyan, another former member of the Karabakh junta, had also provided financial backing to Tandilyan, aiming to secure his own political influence within Armenia. While Tandilyan failed to surpass the electoral threshold for representation in Yerevan’s Council of Elders, we now see that a representative from her party has won the mayoral election in Parakar, Armavir region.

For the ruling Civil Contract party, this outcome is a major disappointment — both for the party itself and personally for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. However, an even greater setback came from the elections to the Council of Elders in Gyumri, Armenia’s second-largest city.

And it is not just about the results — there is also historical symbolism at play. It was from Gyumri that Pashinyan and his associates once launched their march on Yerevan, a movement that ultimately led to what became known as the “Barbecue Revolution”.

According to Armenian media reports, this election was the last major political test ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections, whether they take place as scheduled or in an early format. In this context, Armenian political analysts stressed that it was vital for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to determine whether he could reverse the declining popularity of his party, despite its well-known low approval ratings. His ability to do so relied on employing all available legal and semi-legal strategies against his opponents. However, the results delivered disappointing news for Pashinyan.

As of 08:00, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission (CEC) had released preliminary results from 81 out of 82 polling stations. According to these figures, the ruling Civil Contract party, represented by acting mayor Sarik Minasyan, led the vote count with 36.80% (16,938 votes). The Communist Party of Armenia, led by former mayor Vardan Ghukasyan, followed in second place with 20.71% (9,537 votes). Meanwhile, the "Our City" bloc, led by parliament member Martun Grigoryan, secured 15.85% (7,296 votes), placing third.

At first glance, the Civil Contract party’s lead might suggest a victory. However, the actual political outcome is far more complex. As constitutional law expert Goar Meloyan explained in an interview with News.am, the preliminary results indicate that the opposition political forces that have passed the electoral threshold collectively secure 19 seats in Gyumri’s representative body, while the ruling Civil Contract party obtains only 14 seats.

At present, the Civil Contract party has secured 14 seats based on the Electoral Code’s formula, while the Communist Party of Armenia has obtained 8 seats. The "Our City" bloc, led by Martun Grigoryan, has won 6 seats, the "My Strong Community" party, headed by Ruben Mkhitaryan, has received 3 seats, and the "Mother Armenia" bloc, represented by Karen Simonyan, has gained 2 seats.

As a result, if the opposition forces consolidate, they will control 19 out of the 33 seats in the Gyumri Council of Elders. "This means that Gyumri will have an opposition mayor. If no extraordinary events occur and the election results are not contested, the first session of the representative body, during which the mayor of Gyumri must be elected, is scheduled for April 15," Meloyan noted.

One of the main contenders for the mayoral position is Vardan Ghukasyan, a former mayor of Gyumri. His background includes serving as a commodity expert in the Leninakan trade administration from 1984 to 1988. His biography further states: "Since 1988, he participated in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, assisting Armenian armed forces." Ghukasyan has been closely linked to the Karabakh clan of Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan, making him a polarizing figure in Armenian politics.

The current Armenian government and its affiliated media have built their entire campaign narrative on the assertion that Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan are backing opposition candidates like Ghukasyan to return to power. According to this narrative, their goal is to reinstate the criminal era of the past, characterized by lawless killings and impunity.

However, this strategy failed to produce significant results. When comparing the election outcomes in both Parakar and Gyumri, a clear pattern emerges, signaling what many see as the beginning of the end for Nikol Pashinyan’s rule and his Civil Contract party. This political shift further reinforces why official Baku has repeatedly emphasized its preference to sign a peace treaty with the Armenian state rather than with a particular government. After all, as has been demonstrated once again, Pashinyans come and go…