"There is no peace agreement, so the issue has to be resolved in a harsh way" Russian experts comment on Lachin checkpoint

This is it. The installation of an Azerbaijani checkpoint at the beginning of the Lachin road is Azerbaijan's response to Armenia's provocations aimed at disrupting the peace settlement. Yerevan, of course, does not think so. It is outraged and is involving its overlords to put pressure on Baku. The French Foreign Ministry has already reacted very disapprovingly to the installation of the checkpoint by the Azerbaijani side. But all this was expected.

Anticipating these kinds of statements and at the same time responding to all the current and future attacks on Azerbaijan for its "arbitrary behaviour", the Foreign Ministry clearly stated the official position of our country: "Azerbaijan's legitimate decision and step to establish a checkpoint on the border in its sovereign territory conforms to all the principles and norms of international law. It is known that the Armenian side has declared its recognition of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Azerbaijan as a result of its often-quoted meetings in Prague and Sochi. On this basis, Armenia must accept and respect the right of Azerbaijan to ensure control over entry into and exit from its territory".

In a conversation with Caliber.Az, the deputy director general of the Vestnik Kavkaza news agency, Russian political analyst Andrey Petrov said that "April 23 was truly a historic day for the South Caucasus" because Azerbaijan has put an end to the uncontrolled importation of banned goods and the infiltration of illegal persons into the Karabakh economic region.

"In the previous two and a half years, we witnessed how Russian peacekeepers, under that unofficial mandate that was apparently agreed somewhere behind the scenes between Moscow and Baku, were not engaged in inspecting cargoes at the border, but only escorting them to Khankendi. And it turned out that for two and a half years Armenia was engaged, if I may say so, in abusing the Trilateral Agreement of November 10, 2020, in which Azerbaijan undertook to provide smooth communication between Armenia and Khankendi. And it turned out that Armenia demanded not only unhindered transportation of humanitarian aid and movement not only for Karabakh residents, which was the subject of the Trilateral Statement but also for weapons, mines, and fighters, which were brought in under the guise of civilians," the political scientist stressed.

Now, according to him, Armenia will not be able to do so because Azerbaijan itself will inspect every car entering its territory from Armenia.

"Before that, we saw a remarkable attempt by Azerbaijani civil society to stop the import of weapons and fighters into Karabakh," the Russian political scientist reminded. - It was a protest action of eco-activists, who, by their organisation and the responsibilities they undertook, were killing two birds with one stone in the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement: first, the illegal development of mineral deposits in the Karabakh economic region was stopped, because cars with ore could no longer be transported to Armenia, and second, it became impossible to carry weapons and militants along the Lachin road, because this fact would also be instantly recorded by eco-activists. But, as we have seen already this year, Yerevan did not give up and devised a way to smuggle weapons, mines and militants on dirt roads to bypass the eco-activists' action."

And then, in his opinion, it became clear that it was necessary to act more firmly and set up a checkpoint on the Lachin road, which, incidentally, Azerbaijan had been declaring for a long time.

"The fact that now Armenia will start complaining that Azerbaijan violates the provisions of the Trilateral Statement with this checkpoint is, of course, a groundless statement. And there are a number of reasons for that. To begin with, for example, the Armenian side has not fulfilled any of its obligations under the Trilateral Statement since December 2020. And this is a traditional manifestation of Armenia's foreign policy, when it does nothing, but demands that everyone else do it. That is, it does not withdraw the rest of its armed forces from the Karabakh economic region and does not provide for free transport communication through its territory between the Zangilan region and Nakhchivan," the Russian expert said.

So, Petrov believes that everything is logical: if Armenia does not do it, then why Azerbaijan must continue carrying out its obligations on organizing free passage, especially if weapons and fighters are brought in? The sides did not agree on this - they only agreed on the passage of civilians and humanitarian goods to Karabakh.

"The second point is that Azerbaijan, by installing its checkpoint, is fulfilling its obligations under the Trilateral Statement, and is also doing Armenia's job for it - not letting weapons and fighters into Karabakh, which should not be there. In other words, the remnants of the armed formations will soon have to leave Azerbaijan, because they will simply have nothing to fight with. Thirdly, by setting up the checkpoints Azerbaijan is not violating the Tripartite Statement, because anyone who is allowed to enter Karabakh can still enter without problems. And Russian peacekeepers ensure the passage of Karabakh Armenians to and from Khankendi throughout the Lachin road, just as before. In other words, the Azerbaijani checkpoint does not contradict anything; on the contrary, it only helps to implement the points of the Trilateral Statement," says the political analyst.

According to Petrov, the main advantage of the checkpoint is that by preventing weapons and fighters from entering Karabakh, it prevents Armenia from preparing for revenge in the region.

"The separatists can no longer build up their forces and prepare for a new war. In principle, they have never had the strength to start any kind of effective war, but now they have no reason even to try to conduct any military action, because now with their limited forces, they can do nothing, affect something, and will be quickly liquidated by the counteractions of the Azerbaijani army. Thus, by setting up just one small post at the bridge over the Khakari River, Azerbaijan has completely cancelled a potential new war in Karabakh. It can now only be fought on the notional Azerbaijani-Armenian border. Consequently, with this simple action Azerbaijan has dramatically increased the chance for peace in the South Caucasus. And we can now expect that the peace talks are likely to move forward, simply because Armenia now has no longer any possibility of preparing a new war in Karabakh. Let's hope so. Although the Armenians may once again take that classic position of 'doing nothing', only arguing and complaining that everything bad is done by Azerbaijan. Although in reality, this is how the political and strategic forces in the region look like: Azerbaijan acts and promotes a peaceful agenda, while Armenia only complains and laments. This is probably the way the processes in the South Caucasus will develop in the future," Petrov said.

His opinion is fully shared by another Russian political scientist, Anton Bredikhin, a researcher at the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences, editor-in-chief of the magazine Arkhont and president of the Centre for Ethnic and International Studies. He is convinced that by setting up the checkpoint on the Lachin road, Azerbaijan has taken another important step towards the sovereignty of its state borders and regaining control over its territories.

"In fact, this is Baku's response to Armenia's failure to implement the trilateral agreements of 2020. There is no peace agreement, so the issue has to be resolved in a harsh way. We should not expect a positive response from Armenia. However, it should not be expected in any case or scenario," the expert stressed.

Yerevan, he argues, did not seek the negotiation process, and now it is witnessing the results of its policy.

"Now there is no possibility for weapons deliveries, only humanitarian cargoes can get through. It is worth saying once again: peace on Pashinyan's terms is war. And that is exactly what his Western handlers are pushing him towards," Bredikhin concludes.