Türkiye’s position complicates potential peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan

The website exbulletin.com has published an article about the recent meeting between the Turkish and Armenian leaders, aimed at reviving ties. Caliber.Az reprints the article.

The recent meeting between the Turkish and Armenian leaders, the first in 13 years, has revived the prospect of normalization between the two distant neighbours, with anticipation further heightened by Armenia and Azerbaijan’s agreement on a European Union civilian mission to help demarcate their disputed borders.

Armenia’s territorial dispute with Azerbaijan and its disputes with Türkiye has become a complicated and ossified issue over the past three decades. While a solution remains a daunting task, the cost of perpetuating the status quo has risen since the 2020 war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, increasing the pressure for lasting peace.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met on the sidelines of an EU rally in Prague on October 6, after which Turkish and Armenian leaders held bilateral talks. The last high-level meetings between the two countries took place in 2008 and 2009, culminating in an agreement to establish diplomatic relations and reopen their border which was ultimately not crossed.

Erdogan said after the meeting that Türkeye was ready to reopen its border with Armenia and help restart transport links as soon as Yerevan and Baku reach a peace agreement. This amounts to Türkiye readjusting its terms and making normalization with Armenia conditional on the conclusion of the Azerbaijani-Armenian peace. Previously, Ankara demanded Armenia’s withdrawal from occupied Azerbaijani territories, a condition that materialized following the 2020 war over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave in which Turkish military assistance helped Azerbaijan to prevail.

Of particular interest to Erdogan is a potential transport link between Azerbaijan and its enclave of Nakhichevan, which is separated from the mainland by a strip of Armenian land and shares a tiny border with Türkiye. For Ankara, the route often referred to as the Zangezur Corridor would provide a shortcut to Central Asia.

Erdogan said Pashinyan made certain demands which would be discussed by foreign ministers and special envoys of the two countries. The special envoys have met four times since January. Their fifth meeting, scheduled for September, fell through amid a fresh round of Azerbaijani-Armenian clashes.

Al-Monitor learned that Pashinyan had requested Erdogan’s help in securing the release of prisoners of war and in demarcating the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. Pashinyan, the sources said, wants the border to be drawn based on the Soviet-era map rather than the pre-Soviet one, which would cause Armenia to lose territory. Erdogan, for his part, raised the issue of the transportation corridor and reiterated that Yerevan should end its international campaign to have the massacres of Ottoman-era Armenians recognized as genocide.

In Prague, Pashinyan and Aliyev too held four-way talks with French President Emmanuel Macron and European Council President Charles Michel, which resulted in an agreement on an EU civilian mission to Armenian territory along the border. According to a statement issued after the meeting, the mission, which will begin in October for a maximum of two months, aims to build trust and, through its reports, contribute to the border commissions. The next border demarcation talks will take place in Brussels at the end of October, he said.

The mission proposal had been put forward by the EU’s foreign chief Joseph Borrell who accused Azerbaijan of unacceptable actions earlier this month, saying it was bombing Armenian territory, destroying infrastructure and occupying positions in Armenia.

Aliyev appears to have accepted the assignment under pressure from the EU and US, having previously rejected EU surveillance at the border. The peace process accelerated and the working groups should now start drafting the peace accord, he said after the meeting.

The Prague initiatives have generated a sceptical response from Russia, which regards the South Caucasus as its backyard. Western approaches to the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict don’t seem quite balanced, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said, adding that some Western actors cannot even be called peace mediators. Moscow presented its own settlement proposals to Baku and Yerevan in September, she noted.

From Ankara’s perspective, the ball is now in Yerevan’s court and Pashinyan is expected to resist domestic opposition to move forward. He is well aware that this could turn out to be political suicide. Nonetheless, domestic objections may subside amid growing apprehensions among Armenians about Moscow’s mediating role after the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization failed to intervene in the fighting in September.

A rapprochement with Türkiye is a logical path for Pashinyan as he tries to shake off Russian influence. For his part, Erdogan could hardly find another Armenian leader as peace-loving as Pashinyan.

Aliyev’s posture, however, has been rather haughty, emboldened by Turkish support which has tipped the balance of power in his favour. This reduces Pashinyans’ room for manoeuvre and could force Ankara to pressure Baku for more flexibility if it wants to make its win-win rhetoric convincing. After the talks in Prague, Pashinyan said Azerbaijan did not respond positively to its proposal to unblock all the [transport] communications in full respect of our sovereignty and our laws. Armenian leader winks at Zangezur Corridor though refuses to label it as such, but opposes ceding any sovereign rights to Azerbaijan, such as control of vehicles or collection fees along the route.

Aliyev’s approach has so far promised nothing but a complete debacle for Armenia. Therefore, Erdogan’s assertion that Türkiye has no preconditions and that Pashinyan should reconcile with Aliyev does not really help to move the process forward. Tying Türkiye’s normalization with Armenia to a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan leaves Türkiye without an independent road map or prevents it from using its weight to tangle the knot in the South Caucasus. As such, Erdogan’s policies could reinforce Aliyev’s tendency to use force and stir up hawks in Armenia.

On Nagorno-Karabakh, for example, Aliyev has refused to discuss the status of the Armenian population of the regions, including any form of autonomy. Armenians will have the same rights as Azerbaijani citizens. And if for some reason it is not suitable for someone, they can choose another place of residence for themselves, he said last week.

Pashinyan seems inclined to be flexible about the future of Nagorno-Karabakh and could eventually accept even minority status for his Armenians. Such flexibility would be a great chance for peace. Erdogan could help by adopting a stance that would make things easier for Pashinyan and tempt Aliyev to be less intransigent.