VP: Declining birth rate threatens Türkiye’s demographic future

The birth rate in Türkiye may soon fall below the levels of European Union countries, posing a significant challenge to the nation’s future, Türkiye’s Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz.

He noted that Türkiye’s birth rate, which stood at 2.08 in 2017, has declined to 1.48 in 2024, while the global average currently remains at 2.25.

Highlighting recent demographic trends, Yılmaz pointed out that Türkiye ranks fifth in the world for the fastest decline in birth rates, following China, South Korea, Argentina, and Kuwait. “To maintain population levels, any country needs to sustain a birth rate of 2.1 or higher,” he emphasised. He also noted that the average age of Türkiye’s population has increased from 24.8 to 34.4 over the past 25 years.

Referring to projections from the country’s Statistical Institute (TÜİK), Yılmaz stated that within the next decade, the average age in Türkiye is expected to approach 40.

“In the 2000s, citizens aged 65 and older represented 5.7 per cent of the total population, whereas by 2023 this figure had already exceeded 10 per cent. If the current trend continues, in 20 years the proportion of elderly citizens will surpass 20 per cent,” he warned.

The vice president described Türkiye’s youth as a “strategic asset that enhances the country’s international competitiveness.”

“At the current rate of population growth, Türkiye’s population is unlikely to reach 100 million. By 2050, the population is projected to be 94 million, and by 2100, it could decline to 77 million. For developing countries like Türkiye, it is crucial to achieve economic growth while maintaining a youthful population,” Yılmaz stressed. He also mentioned that a new systemic model to support young families is being developed and could be implemented as early as 2027.

Earlier, Türkiye’s Minister of Family and Social Services, Mahinur Özdemir Göktash, reported that 57 percent of families currently have no children or adolescents under the age of 18. She added that within the next five years, the number of primary school students in Türkiye is expected to decline by 900,000.

By Tamilla Hasanova