Will Turkmen gas reach Europe soon? Türkiye's crusial role explained

Diplomatic efforts by Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan have intensified regarding Turkmen gas, the supply of which has regained relevance as Europe faces natural gas shortages following the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

At the beginning of March, a Memorandum of Understanding and Cooperation in the field of natural gas and a Declaration of Intent were signed between Türkiye and Turkmenistan. It is expected that these two documents will form the basis for a future, more active partnership in the field of hydrocarbon supplies.

Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources A. Bayraktar said that at the first stage, up to 2 billion cubic meters of Turkmen gas can be transported to Türkiye.

He also stated that three different options for delivering the volume in question to Türkiye are being considered. In particular, Bayraktar said: “One of these alternatives is for Turkmen gas to flow to Türkiye through Iran through an exchange. The second option involves Turkmenistan's gas flowing to Türkiye through a swap via Iran and Azerbaijan, and the third involves Turkmen's gas shipment to Türkiye through a pipeline under the Caspian Sea. All this is under consideration, all these are issues that are currently being discussed,” the minister said.

Specific steps

Turkish experts are confident that despite longer-term prospects, transporting Turkmen gas via the trans-Caspian pipeline is the most attractive alternative for gas supplies to Türkiye and will serve as a very important life support line for the Turkic-speaking world.

However, to implement this ambitious plan, it is necessary to take concrete steps today and intensify work in this direction.

The Turkish government's energy policy is balanced and the country adheres to multifaceted cooperation with various players in the energy sector in terms of ensuring the country's energy security. Thus, energy security experts believe that Türkiye should maintain relations with all parties that have strengths in the energy field, such as Russia, Iran, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, and must prioritize energy security and maintain a balance of power.”

Potential of Turkmenistan

The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) Outlook 2050 report states that Turkmenistan ranks 4th in the world with natural gas reserves of 13.9 trillion cubic meters.

Turkmenistan, producing 40 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually in 2010, increased its production capacity day by day. The country's annual production rose to 63.2 billion cubic meters in 2019, 66 in 2020, 79.3 in 2021, 78.3 in 2022 and 80.6 billion cubic meters in 2023.

According to the same report, Turkmenistan is expected to increase annual natural gas production to 110 billion cubic meters by 2050.

About 35 billion cubic meters of gas produced in Turkmenistan is consumed domestically, 40 billion cubic meters is exported to China, and the remainder is exported to Azerbaijan through Russia, Uzbekistan and Iran. Turkmenistan, which exports almost half of its natural gas production, is China's largest gas supplier.

The country's natural gas reserves are estimated to be over 50 trillion cubic meters.

Turkmenistan is trying to increase gas exports via pipelines

The four-stage Central Asia-China gas pipeline, which transports Turkmen gas to China through Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, came into operation in 2009. The capacity of the pipeline, phases A, B and C of which are currently active, allows pumping 55 billion cubic meters of gas annually to China. The last stage of the line - section "D" with a capacity of 35 billion cubic meters is planned to be put into operation by the 2030s and will increase the total capacity of the line by 30 billion cubic meters.

Turkmenistan, which is working on alternative pipeline projects for natural gas trading, intends to transport 33 billion cubic meters of gas annually to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India in the future via the 1,814-kilometer Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline. The construction of this pipeline is in its final stages.

Continuing efforts to increase natural gas production and exports, Turkmenistan signed a five-year agreement with Russia to sell 5.5 billion cubic meters of gas annually in 2019. Under a swap agreement concluded in 2021, it will sell about 2 billion cubic meters of gas annually to Azerbaijan via Iran. Azerbaijan's gas imports from Turkmenistan last year amounted to 1.5 billion cubic meters.

Thus, the prospects for Turkmen gas supplies to Europe are beginning to take on more and more realistic shape.