Armenia on the brink of a major political upheaval Pashinyan in danger of being toppled

Armenia is currently in a situation that points to major changes in the political landscape.

I would like to start by saying that on March 7, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan held a 4-hour meeting behind closed doors with MPs from the Civil Contract faction. The meeting took place in a broad format, with the participation of members of the government, including Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, two deputy prime ministers and others.

The Armenian media recalled that in a previous meeting of the same type, Pashinyan had informed the deputies of his intention to apply for EU membership, instructing them to think and study the situation. At the end of the meeting, more than thirty MPs had the floor with questions and expressions of concern. The majority of those attending the meeting expressed concern about possible threats and developments related to attempts to change Armenia's foreign policy orientation, according to Armenian media. Some MPs referred to Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan, saying that he too had predicted the risks. Several deputies could not stand the tension and asked directly whether the authorities were taking this step against Russia or for the sake of Armenia, and what the consequences for the country would be.

In other words, panic, one step away from treason and internal turmoil, is brewing even within the ruling party and the leadership of the neighbouring country.

In this context, it is worth remembering the much-publicised resignation of the Armenian ambassador, Edmond Marukyan. He is now an outspoken critic of the actions of the Armenian leadership, almost to the point of accusing it of betraying national interests. Specifically, Marukyan cited disagreements over the possible adoption of a new constitution and the "revision of the foundations of statehood" as the reason for his resignation. Armenia's ruling party has already reacted to what he said. "Perhaps Edmon Marukyan is preparing for the 2026 elections, which I consider a normal phenomenon," Vagharshak Hakobyan, deputy chairman of the National Assembly's standing committee on regional and Eurasian integration, a member of the ruling Civil Contract party, told reporters in parliament on March 11.

This means that the ranks of Nikol Pashinyan's former allies have thinned out, and the explanation is clear. Marukyan, too, has a political sense and knows that the country is on the eve of a major explosion. And it is not surprising that Samvel Babayan, who before the final defeat of the illegal regime in Khankendi was considered by the Armenian authorities as an alternative to Araik Harutyunyan, has become more active against this background. He even tried to negotiate with Azerbaijan on the issue of unblocking the Aghdam-Askeran road.

Now Babayan prophesies that unless Yerevan gives in, there will be a new war for which the Armenian army is unprepared. It seems that even the old terrorist feels that Armenia is on the eve of a major upheaval. He is so aware of this that he has already declared that the Armenian parliament is not a reflection of public opinion and that there must be new elections. "The authorities know that they are weak, that's why they are afraid, they don't want to go to new elections, but we have no alternative. We need to go to new elections quickly, we need to understand which forces the public trusts to take power and lead the country along one of the existing paths," Babayan said.

At the same time, he compared the Armenian nation to a ball being kicked from one court to another. "People, you will not be on the political field. The political field must be redistributed," prophesied the man whose hands are up to his elbows in the blood of Azerbaijani civilians. He now claims that the current Armenian authorities are forcing Karabakh Armenians to take to the streets. Babayan claims that 80% of the country's people live in poverty. In general, if Babayan was once a travelling companion of Pashinyan and his team, he has now decided to become their most ardent critic. Even though there were enough of them in Armenia even without Babayan.

The leader of the Democratic Party of Armenia, Aram Sargsyan, coordinator of the "Together" movement, has said that the Armenian authorities continue to do what they are told from outside. In his view, Armenia is no longer a sovereign state. "We need to make sure that Nikol Pashinyan steps down of his own free will. This will allow for a peaceful change of the situation in the country," he said.

Now word got out that the "Together" movement will hold a rally in Yerevan on March 13. Hrant Bagratian, a member of the movement and former Prime Minister of Armenia, announced it at a meeting with journalists on March 11. He explained that the rally will be held in Freedom Square and will start at 18:00. Bagratyan said that during this period the movement's representatives have held many important meetings, including in the regions. According to him, the change of power in Armenia is imminent. He called on citizens to become part of this process.

All previous Armenian opposition actions were few and far between. It is possible that this time too the rally of the Together movement will not be very massive. But it is obvious that the overwhelming majority of Armenian citizens have adopted a wait-and-see stance, they have accumulated a lot of complaints against Pashinyan and his team, and people are waiting for clear evidence that the grandiose chaos in the country has begun and it is now possible to become an active participant in it. And I won't be surprised if the active participants in the final part of these processes in the form of real mass protests include yesterday's comrades, allies and even active representatives of the ruling party. Under these circumstances, Macron will not help Pashinyan.