EU's missteps amid Armenia-Azerbaijan normalisation, North Korean soldiers against Ukraine and Israel's ground ops Weekly review by Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az has prepared another episode of “Sobitiya” ("Events") show with Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Abiyev, featuring the week's key news related to Azerbaijan and other countries.

Azerbaijan – Armenia

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev received the credentials of ambassadors from several countries. The president’s meeting with new Belgian ambassador to Azerbaijan Julien de Fraipont drew particular attention, during which the Azerbaijani leader made several statements directed at the EU politicians.

The president emphasised that the European Union should preserve neutrality in the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process.

“Unfortunately, we see that some figures in Brussels, at EU headquarters, have taken sides. This is counterproductive. It only creates mistrust and isolates the EU from the normalization process,” the president said.

President Aliyev also pointed out the main instigator of the anti-Azerbaijani hysteria in Europe. 

"My recommendation, if I may offer this recommendation for the sake of continued cooperation between the EU and Azerbaijan, would be to avoid the footsteps of France and not to find themselves under France's influence, because France's policy has been absolutely destructive and remains absolutely destructive with respect to the Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization process," the president stated.          

“And the last point regarding the EU-Azerbaijan relationship, which has increased certain mistrust, was the way the so-called “European Observation Mission” on our border was prolonged without any agreement or even consulting with Azerbaijan,” the president noted.  

The president went on to say that the conduct of the members of this mission, referred to as “binocular diplomacy,” was absolutely unacceptable and went beyond any standards of normal political culture. Azerbaijan will continue to raise these issues in its communications with the EU.

Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov participated in a "3+3" format meeting in Istanbul. 

During his visit, Bayramov also held bilateral meetings, including one with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan. Proceeding from the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry’s statement, the sides continued negotiations on a peace agreement and the establishment of interstate relations, and agreed to make greater efforts to finalise and sign it in the shortest possible time. 

Amid Yerevan's evident trend of sabotaging negotiations, the fact that representatives from both sides continue meeting in various formats and venues indicates their willingness to inject new momentum into the peace process. Meanwhile, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has once again been promoting his "Crossroads of Peace" initiative. 

At a forum dedicated to this project, he lamented that Azerbaijan allegedly has no intention of assisting Armenia in its implementation, expressing concerns that Yerevan might reap billions in profits. It is evident that he not only wishes to maintain the territorial claims against Azerbaijan enshrined in legislation but also seeks Azerbaijan’s support for an ambitious and futile venture. Meanwhile, the simplest step Yerevan could take to benefit from transit opportunities is to fulfil the ninth point of the trilateral statement, which involves restoring the Zangezur corridor. 

During the forum, Pashinyan once again attempted to disavow his commitments regarding this point. "There is nothing in it that suggests another country can exercise control over any part of Armenia's territory, or that Armenia's sovereignty on its own land can be restricted in any way," Pashinyan stated.

Spokesman for the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry Aykhan Hajizada commented on Pashinyan's statements. "Pashinyan's claims regarding the opening of routes, made in reference to the trilateral statement, once again demonstrate Armenia's disregard for the commitments made by the Armenian leadership," Hajizada noted in his comments. 

Ukraine – Russia

The Russian army is continuing its offensive operations along nearly the entire front line, evidently with the intent to pressure the Ukrainian defence and break through at its weakest point. There is also the information about ongoing intense battles in the Kursk region. 

Russian forces have succeeded in reclaiming control over several settlements; however, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue maintaining control of the majority of the territory they had previously occupied. Meanwhile, while delivering a speech in the Verkhovna Rada (parliament), Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy publicly unveiled the "Victory Plan" which he subsequently took to Brussels. 

According to this plan, Ukraine is to be invited to join NATO, and a "comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package" should be established on Ukrainian territory. Moreover, Ukraine's allies must increase their arms supplies and participate in the country’s post-war reconstruction.    

The plan mainly focuses on expectations from the West. Is the West prepared to embrace this plan? There are already indications of a skeptical response from Western nations regarding the Ukrainian leader's proposal. There is such information that North Korean soldiers will participate in the war on Russia's side, with some sources suggesting that they are already involved. 

This was confirmed by the South Korean presidential office. Beyond the military implications, this event carries significant political ramifications as well. North Korea is China's closest ally, and all experts agree that Pyongyang would not have made the decision to send troops to Ukraine without a signal from Beijing. 

This indicates that there is a political manoeuvre by Beijing aimed at demonstrating to the West that it can also tip the scales in the global standoff. Thus, Beijing has made its stance clear, and at this moment, Zelenskyy is demanding the maximum—an invitation to NATO—likely as a strategy to secure at least the minimum. Amid such significant support for Moscow from Beijing, the West will be compelled to ramp up its military assistance to Ukraine. 

Middle East

Israel continues its ground operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon, simultaneously targeting and eliminating high-ranking commanders of the group. However, the most significant news comes from the Gaza Strip, where Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has been killed. This was not achieved during a special operation, but rather as a result of a spontaneous street battle. 

Sinwar and several individuals accompanying him emerged from a bunker, presumably in search of an escape route from the Gaza Strip. Soldiers of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spotted them and opened fire. The fugitives took shelter in a nearby building, but were subsequently targeted by tank shelling. Sinwar was killed by a fragment from a collapsing wall. 

The elimination of Sinwar is expected to pave the way for negotiations regarding hostages, as he was the one imposing impossible conditions on Israel, including the complete withdrawal of troops from Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already stated that Hamas fighters who lay down their arms and release Israeli hostages will be allowed to "walk away and live."  

At the same time, the issue of a potential Israeli strike against Iran remains on the agenda, and it appears that Tel Aviv has already coordinated its plans with Washington. When asked if the US understood what Israel's response would be and when corresponding measures would be taken, Biden replied positively.

However, he declined to disclose any specific details. According to Israeli officials, a strike against Iran is anticipated in the coming days, with some reports suggesting it could occur within hours.