J.D. Vance in South Caucasus and the great Eurasian reshuffle Article by Forbes

The American magazine Forbes has published an article by Kamran Bokhari focusing on Azerbaijan’s role in the Eurasian reshuffle. Caliber.Az presents the most telling excerpts from the piece.

Editor’s note: Kamran Bokhari, PhD, is a Senior Director at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, D.C. He also teaches Eurasian geopolitics as part of the Security Studies program at Georgetown University. Previously, he served as the Central Asia studies coordinator at the U.S. Department of State’s Foreign Service Institute.

"U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance arrived in Armenia February 9 and is due in Azerbaijan on February 11–12 as part of a trip aimed at advancing the U.S.-brokered peace agreement between the two countries announced last August at the White House. His visit is intended to accelerate development of the Trump Route for International Peace & Prosperity – a 27-mile strategic transit corridor running through southern Armenia along the Iranian border and linking Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave.

Vance’s tour follows recent outreach by Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (February 3–4) and Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev (February 5–6) to Pakistan to strengthen strategic ties, expand trade, and advance transit routes connecting Central Asia to Pakistani ports and global markets. 

Unprecedented shift in Eurasia

A major geopolitical realignment is unfolding across Eurasia as Russia and Iran face weakening influence. As a result, the post-Cold War framework that has constrained the South Caucasus and Central Asia since the 1991 Soviet collapse is rapidly unraveling. At the same time, the United States is advancing a global strategy focused on redistributing burdens and recalibrating commitments. Together, these trends are prompting regional actors to diversify their external partnerships and reduce dependence on Moscow.

These forces are creating a new geo-economic space stretching from Eastern Europe and the Black Sea through Türkiye, the South Caucasus, the Caspian, Central Asia, South Asia, and the Arabian Sea. Historically, this vast landmass has been a contested arena for rival empires – Greek, Persian, Roman, Byzantine, Arab, Turkic, Mongol, and Russian. In today’s emerging trans-Eurasian network, Azerbaijan occupies a pivotal role, serving as a strategic bridge linking European, Eurasian, and Indo-Pacific economic and security systems. Consequently, deeper U.S. engagement with Baku has become a critical lever for influencing the region’s evolving balance of power.

Against this backdrop of emerging connectivity and American engagement, Section 907 of the 1992 Freedom Support Act – a Cold War-era policy relic – continues to restrict U.S. assistance to Azerbaijan. Originally enacted to pressure Baku to lift its blockade of Armenia and the territories in Karabakh formerly under Yerevan’s control, the law became obsolete following the 2023 end of hostilities and the August 2025 peace agreement brokered by President Donald Trump and thus needs to be repealed. That the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) continues to advocate for its continuation illustrates the persistence of partisan and diaspora-driven lobbying. ANCA’s efforts are increasingly at odds with Armenia’s own behavior and foreign policy, which has shifted toward reconciliation with Azerbaijan, and they undermine American interests in the South Caucasus – threatening the Trump Route project and the strategic dividends it promises for Washington.

Moscow’s waning influence

Russian influence along its southern periphery eroded sharply after 2020 amid economic strain, pandemic disruption, and mounting military constraints. Moscow’s weakening grip was compounded by regional actors testing the limits of its authority and pursuing independent strategies. 

Azerbaijan now views the bloc as largely irrelevant, actively cultivating partnerships with the U.S., Türkiye, the EU, and other global players. Armenia has similarly sought to diversify its alliances beyond Moscow, signalling a shift in traditional dependencies. At the same time, Central Asian states have embraced multi-vector foreign policies to hedge against Russian dominance. They have deepened engagement with the United States through forums like the C5+1 summits, advanced connectivity projects that bypass Moscow, and reinforced national identities as Kremlin influence steadily declines.

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are advancing both the East-West Middle Corridor and a complementary southern trade axis linking Afghanistan and Pakistan. Their outreach to Islamabad highlights a strategic push for export diversification, maritime access, and deeper integration with South Asian and Middle Eastern markets.

These shifts have created room for Trans-Caspian nations states to diversify their global partnerships. For Washington, this creates a strategic opening to expand geoeconomic leverage in a region where U.S. influence has historically been limited. Coordinated initiatives involving Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Pakistan — amid Russian pullback, Chinese overextension, and Iranian instability – are reshaping Eurasia’s power dynamics and reinforcing a U.S. approach centered on burden-sharing rather than unilateral intervention. Within this emerging architecture, Azerbaijan serves as the principal connector linking the South Caucasus, Central Asia, and the broader Indo-Pacific basin," Bokhari writes.