South Caucasian tete-a-tete Towards peace without mediators

It has been said many times that Armenia had a historic chance to establish itself as a sovereign state after the 44-day second Karabakh war. Indeed, the Armenians experienced a shock from the rapid defeat of their army, the loss of Karabakh they once occupied, and in general, the dream of “miatsum” (a campaign of the Armenians that features separatism, 'status', and 'independence' efforts in Karabakh) was shattered. However, this shock should have become the starting point for snapping back and the beginning of the creation of true Armenian statehood, free from ideas of national superiority and territorial claims to neighbouring countries.

In the old paradigm of Armenia’s statehood, its patrons intended it to be a breaking point in the Turkic world. After Azerbaijan has strengthened its international position, this discourse has intensified. Armenia’s patrons are spreading rumours about an imaginary threat to Armenian sovereignty from Azerbaijan.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan does not even think about annexing the Armenian territory. The borders are still conditional as there is no peace treaty, but Azerbaijan is in its right mind and does not lay claim to territories recognised by international law as Armenian ones. We made great efforts to repel the attacks of certain forces while liberating our lands, which are rightfully ours. We don't need someone else's land. We do not want to be an outcast for the sake of trying to collect territories that were once Azerbaijani ones. It remains in history. Now there is Armenia and we want to establish good neighbourly relations with it.

Unfortunately, due to the criminal stubbornness of the Armenian leadership, such relations were established through war. However, the war is over. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, not in practice, but in words, admitted that Karabakh is Azerbaijan. We even saved him from the need to take steps unpopular with the electorate and we ourselves cleared Karabakh of a gang of criminals and the remnants of the Armenian army. There are no longer grey zones sponsored by Armenia on the Azerbaijani territory. The path to a peace treaty is open.

However, Armenia’s Western partners swoop in again and begin to talk to the Azerbaijani side in such a tone that makes it impossible to sit down with them not only at the negotiating table but even on a park bench. Azerbaijan is accused of non-existent past and future crimes, and there is even direct blackmail and interference in sovereign affairs. Is this happening because they understand well that Armenia can go free?

After all, good neighbourliness with Turkey and Azerbaijan is the only possible paradigm for Armenia's stable existence and development. By the way, I could be wrong, but Pashinyan looked happy and relaxed only at an informal meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev during the inauguration of the Turkish president. Paradoxically, Pashinyan felt at ease between two “existential” enemies. This happens because there is no patrons’ sword of Damocles and he instinctively feels that he is between people who do not threaten him in any way.

Baku offers the best option for the negotiation process in Caucasian Tbilisi, equally close and equally distant from us, and without toxic intermediaries. However again, the West makes numerous promises to Armenia, namely, assistance, weapons, visa-free regime, various memberships in various organisations, and tries to impose its negotiation format. It is very difficult for Pashinyan, who is greatly grateful to the West for coming to power, amid anti-Russian hysteria in the Armenian society, to say “no”. We have to admit that if earlier the Armenians lived as a chimera of Karabakh, now they live as a chimera of Europe.

Although now many people in Armenia probably understand that the adventure with Karabakh was a mistake. Armenia had a unique chance to automatically achieve peaceful coexistence with its neighbours during the collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and gaining independence. Armenia, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, had to rehabilitate the right to independence within its 29,000 sq. km. However, Armenia occupied other country’s lands. As a result, meager Armenian state and administrative resources were scattered and lost their effectiveness. By the time of the collapse of the USSR, there was a general understanding in the world that the newly independent countries were recognised by the international community within the borders of the former Soviet republics (this fact, by the way, refutes any argument about the alleged threat to Armenia from Türkiye or Azerbaijan).

During the last three years of the existence of the USSR, Miatsum functionaries hastened to demonstrate including Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) into the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic. However, they failed. The USSR, although weakened, but rejected these claims. The republics left the USSR without “legally formalised” territorial losses. Then, small and poor Armenia decided to challenge the international system. In fact, it occupied Karabakh, formalising it as the separation of the Karabakh Armenians within the idea of the right to self-determination and accusing Azerbaijan of oppression.

Armenian politicians hoped that they would succeed. However, no country has recognised the puppet entity on the Azerbaijani territory. By refusing to do this, they actually accepted the fact of occupation. The West refused to perceive the Karabakh case as a special case. There is another very subtle nuance here rather than just not to spoil relations with hydrocarbon-rich Azerbaijan. The West, which won the Cold War, as we noted above, could not dare to contradict itself, namely, there are international law and its basic principle of the territorial integrity of states. The Armenians shamelessly challenged the paradigm promoted by the West. Moreover, despite the intention of the West to counteract the Turkic and Islamic world, certain circles in Europe and the US were irritated by such insolence of the Armenians.

Even then, on the wave of military success, Armenia did not see the West’s approval to legitimise the occupied lands. This fact should have snapped back the Armenian society, forcing it to reconsider its basic priorities, among which claims to neighbours play a special role. Having reconsidered these ideas, Armenians will inevitably come to the idea that they should cooperate with neighbouring countries for the benefit of the entire region.

Having set their sights on Karabakh, the Armenians almost lost Armenia. Not in a physical sense, but in the sense that in pursuit of patrons they actually lose their statehood, or rather, they are never able to form it.

At this difficult moment, it is Azerbaijan that lends a helping hand, offering to meet without intermediaries and determine the future relations themselves. It would be very imprudent not to accept this offer. There are plenty of venues for such a meeting, namely, Tbilisi, as was mentioned above or border areas. The main thing is to come to an agreement ourselves, rather than wait for someone to agree instead of us.

P.S. While this piece was being prepared, the Armenian Foreign Ministry stated that the Armenian side sent the sixth proposal of the agreement to the Azerbaijani side. Thus, Yerevan responded to another draft peace treaty, which was handed over to it by Baku two months ago. In turn, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry noted that Baku is ready for direct negotiations with Yerevan on a bilateral basis for the speedy conclusion of a peace treaty.