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Trump vs. NATO Allies: The rules of the game are changing Expert insights

16 January 2025 09:00

NATO is unlikely to accept the proposal from incoming U.S. President Donald Trump to raise the defence spending of member countries from 2% to 5% of GDP. However, it is likely that the alliance will increase the current target. According to Reuters.

"It seems there will be a shift. I don't think it will be 5%, which would be impossible for almost every nation in the world right now but... it will not be two [per cent], which we are already struggling to reach, but it will be more than two," said Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto in an interview with the agency.

According to Reuters, several unnamed alliance officials also do not support the American leader’s initiative, but they generally approve of an increase in defence spending. Notably, the issue of raising defence spending will be discussed at the organization’s summit in The Hague in June.

Experts believe that the 5% GDP target is practically unattainable for nearly all NATO members, both economically and politically. Some analysts speculate that Trump intentionally proposed an unrealistic figure to eventually secure a compromise closer to 3% after prolonged negotiations.

Earlier, Trump announced at a press conference his intention to push for increasing NATO members' military spending to 5% of their GDP.

How realistic are these plans? And will their implementation strengthen the alliance and enhance its combat readiness?

These questions were addressed by prominent foreign experts for Caliber.Az.

Professor of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Tennessee (USA), Andrei Korobkov, emphasized that Trump is a highly skilled and effective negotiator who always demands more than he expects to achieve.

"We saw this during his first presidential term, when he initially demanded that NATO members fulfil their alliance obligations—2% of their national budgets for military needs. At that time, only five alliance countries, including the U.S., met this requirement. But Trump strongly insisted that these obligations be met by the allied countries. Then, when it became clear that many of them were not going to fulfil these obligations, he began demanding that they allocate 4% of their budgets. As a result, today, instead of just five, 28 NATO members (the vast majority) are already spending 2% of their GDP on defence. Therefore, now that Trump is talking about 5%, it is clear that he expects to settle on a number somewhere in between," said the professor.

At the same time, Trump is acting decisively, and it is clear to everyone that he is not Biden, says Korobkov.

"He demonstrated this with his treatment of Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau, who quickly 'deflated' and resigned. While there were several reasons for this, one of them was the humiliation he faced at the hands of Trump. This serves as a clear signal to allies like Scholz in Germany, Macron in France, and Starmer in the UK, who is already under pressure from Musk, a Trump ally. Trump’s handling of Trudeau sends a message to these allies that the rules of the game are changing, and they will be firmly required to take on their fair share of costs and direct military involvement. For example, if you want to take action on Ukraine, that’s your European problem. Then pay up, and if you wish, you can explore other measures, including military ones. Naturally, the allies who actively supported the Democrats and essentially lost, like the Democratic Party in the U.S., now understand that the game’s dynamics are shifting, and they must adapt to these new realities. Therefore, it can be expected that Trump’s pressure will lead to both an increase in military budgets and a number of other changes in the actions of the U.S.'s European allies, as well as Canada, which is also a NATO member," said the expert.

Attempts by European allies to pursue an independent course or initiate programs, as was the case in the Balkans in the 1990s and in Libya in the early 2000s, generally ended in failure, and Europeans had to turn to the U.S. essentially pleading for help to get them out of the problematic situations they had found themselves in due to their own initiatives, notes our interlocutor.

"Therefore, no matter what Europeans say publicly, they understand perfectly well that without the U.S., they cannot ensure their defence, and in general, not only their military but also their economic well-being directly depends on maintaining the alliance with the United States and the preservation of the American, including nuclear, umbrella.

In other words, they have a very weak bargaining position in relation to the U.S., and no matter how they feel about Trump, they will be forced to work with him and fulfil the remaining promises. Therefore, one can expect a sharp increase in pressure from the U.S. on the Europeans, and whatever the public rhetoric may be, behind closed doors, European allies will have to accept most of the demands now being put forward by the White House during the new Trump presidency," said Korobkov.

German political scientist and professor at the WeltTrends Institute of International Politics (Potsdam), Alexander Rahr, stated that Trump knows exactly which tools to use to pressure and discipline rebellious allies.

"He will demand a sharp increase in contributions to support NATO from all European countries, as well as from Canada. European countries do not have extra money, but some, such as Poland, Romania, or the Baltic states, will try to ingratiate themselves with the U.S. and will make cuts in other areas of their national budgets to reconcile with Trump," said the political scientist.

According to his assumption, Germany, after a likely change of chancellor, will also make concessions, understanding that without America, Europe remains defenceless, and conflict situations with Russia and China are becoming more frequent.

"It is still hard to imagine where Europe will turn, but it is clear that not in a better direction. The Germans are starting to realize that the coming years will be difficult, taxes will rise, social benefits will decline, infrastructure projects will be suspended, and everyone will have to dive into the debt pit. Europe's elites will blame the worsening of life on the 'aggressor Russia.' NATO will think about further expansion, primarily to acquire new paying clients," concluded Rahr.

Caliber.Az
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