Why progress in PKK peace process in Türkiye is losing momentum

Devlet Bahçeli, the leader of Türkiye’s Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), made a groundbreaking call in Octobor of this year for Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan's Workers Party (PKK), to publicly declare an end to the political fraction's terrorism activities. While this initiative initially garnered broad support within the political community across the country, progress has since stalled. Key actors, including the pro-PKK Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), have displayed ambivalence, and internal divisions within the PKK have further complicated matters.

The Turkish Daily Sabah publication raised the question of why progress has stalled in recent months in the path towards peace between Ankara and the Kurdish group, that is widely recognized as a terrorist organization internationally. One important factor to consider is the DEM party’s contradictory response. While the process presented an opportunity for peace after 40 years of terrorism, the DEM Party accused Türkiye’s ruling coalition of exploiting the peace initiative and pursuing "expansionist and colonialist" policies.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, initially supportive of Bahçeli’s initiative, has intensified his stance against the PKK and its Syrian branch, the YPG, especially following a terrorist attack in Ankara soon after Bahçeli’s announcement.

Internal disagreements within the PKK leadership also pose significant obstacles. While Öcalan has expressed willingness to shift the PKK’s approach from violence to political dialogue under specific conditions, other leaders, like Duran Kalkan, have resisted, emphasizing their authority as active fighters over Öcalan’s imprisoned status.

Bahçeli himself has softened his rhetoric. At a recent MHP meeting, he criticized the DEM Party for failing to distance itself from terrorism. Despite these setbacks, there are indications of progress: two DEM Party deputies are expected to visit Öcalan, potentially leading to new developments.

The PKK/YPG’s presence in Syria adds complexity to the peace process. Türkiye’s conditions for resolving the issue include the dissolution of the YPG, the departure of non-Syrian fighters, and the reintegration of non-PKK forces into local institutions, such as a police force. Ankara is prioritizing a peaceful transition, urging the new Syrian administration to address the PKK/YPG issue before Türkiye intervenes directly.

Statements from YPG leader Ferhat Abdi Şahin, nicknamed "Mazloum Kobani," have been notable as he acknowledged the PKK’s presence in Syria for the first time publicly. By suggesting that they could leave if a ceasefire with Türkiye is achieved, this reflects the YPG’s efforts to negotiate with Syria’s emerging government. Meanwhile, new Syrian authorities have pledged to disarm groups outside state control, including the YPG, and integrate their territories into unified national governance.

International factors are also contributing to the stalled progress in negotiations. The PKK/YPG has relied on U.S. support for legitimacy, particularly in combating ISIS and managing detention camps. However, Ankara has signaled its willingness to assume these responsibilities, and U.S. attitudes toward Türkiye’s approach have grown more favorable. The upcoming U.S. administration under Donald Trump could further influence the process, especially regarding Syria policy. Resolving the PKK/YPG issue could weaken the PKK’s leadership in Iraq’s Qandil Mountains, potentially compelling them to accept Türkiye’s terms for peace.

The article paints a grim outlook, predicting the path to peace to remain uncertain. Various factors will shape how relations will develop: the stance of Türkiye’s Kurdish community, internal PKK divisions, the peaceful resolution of the YPG’s status, U.S. policies, and the capabilities of the new Syrian administration. Success hinges on balancing these factors, fostering dialogue, and achieving inclusivity in the region’s governance. While the process faces significant challenges, the publication believes it holds promise for reshaping the region’s future.

By Nazrin Sadigova