Yerevan's peace deal with Baku to open doors for further normalisation of Turkish-Armenian relations

Armenia is ready for normalisation of relations with Türkiye and the restoration of peace between the two states. Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan made this hopeful and upbeat statement at a press conference in Ankara yesterday after talks with his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu.

"We agreed with Türkiye to jointly repair the Ani bridge, as well as take care of the relevant infrastructure ahead of the full opening of the border," the Armenian Minister told reporters. However, he did not say a word about Yerevan's readiness to normalise relations with Baku, although the two ministers discussed the situation in the South Caucasus and the burning issue of peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Following Mirzoyan, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu confirmed that he and his Armenian counterpart had reached an agreement on accelerating the preparation of infrastructure for the opening of land communication between the two countries.

"Both sides have results of analysis and inspections of roads and bridges near the border crossings. The work is underway, there are measures that we will take concerning the roads leading to the border checkpoints. We agreed today to speed up their implementation," Cavusoglu said. He also recalled that the reconstructed route is part of the historical Silk Road and "its activation will be of great importance for the region".

As it is known, the checkpoint "Alijan" on the Turkish-Armenian border was opened on February 11 for the first time in 35 years for the supply of humanitarian aid to the earthquake zone with its epicenter in the Turkish city of Kahramanmaras. The same checkpoint was used to send humanitarian supplies to Armenia after the 1988 earthquake. Aid collected through the Turkish Red Crescent Society was then sent to the disaster area - the Turkish people were among the first to show sympathy and assistance to neighbouring Armenia. However, few Armenians remember this noble gesture of the Turks now, and they condemn their own leadership for extending a helping hand to "the enemies of the Armenian people". For some reason, Armenia is very quick to forget all good things, especially if they come from the Turks, but for more than a century they have been crying about fictitious "genocide".

To its credit, Türkiye did not ignore Armenia's offer of assistance, showing that it appreciated even the tiniest sympathy and support from a state, however unfriendly. It would, however, be naïve to believe that Armenia's gesture was motivated solely by noble causes and not by its own interests. The actualiasation by the Armenian side of the issue of opening the border with Türkiye is more than eloquent in this regard. Meanwhile, Türkiye's intentions to restore bilateral relations with Armenia were voiced immediately after Azerbaijan restored its territorial integrity as a result of the 44-day war in 2020. That is, after the removal of the main obstacle to Turkish-Armenian dialogue. Moreover, the Turkish side considers the opening of the border with Armenia possible only on condition of the normalisation of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, which has been repeatedly stated by official Ankara. However, judging by the optimistic statements frequently voiced in the Armenian press, Yerevan seriously expects the Armenian-Turkish border to open soon, although the talks on peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan have been stalled for an indefinite period, again because of Yerevan's unconstructive position.

Occasionally, however, Yerevan reports that it is about to re-establish good relations with Türkiye. For example, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced at a press conference in Yerevan in January this year that the Armenian-Turkish border could be opened to third-country nationals in the near future.

"We are interested in railway connections with Türkiye, as well as the use and construction of new highways, and in this context, the only obstacle is Azerbaijan's unconstructive position, the narratives about some corridors," Pashinyan said insolently. Armenian Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan stumped journalists the other day, saying that Armenia was ready to open its border with Türkiye and normalise relations at any time.

"Armenia is ready to open the border and normalise relations at any time. There have been agreements, one of which is the opening of the land border for citizens of third countries visiting Armenia and Türkiye. The Armenian and Turkish sides are negotiating, and we will continue working in this direction, hoping it will happen as soon as possible," Grigoryan said.

In the meantime, the optimism of Armenian authorities concerning the opening of the border with Türkiye seems to be premature. Firstly, there are no obvious signs of real normalisation of relations between Baku and Yerevan yet. There are only abstract statements by the Armenian leadership about their alleged readiness to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan. But this is as far as words go. Secondly, the Turkish leadership, unlike the Armenian authorities, does what it means and demands concrete steps from Armenia towards lasting peace in the region. And without that Armenia will have no chance to solve such an important problem.

Thirdly, just last week the Turkish trade minister, Mehmet Muş, while visiting Kars province, delivered a targeted message to Armenia, stressing that the opening of the border can only happen if relations with Azerbaijan are normalized. "Armenia must settle relations with Azerbaijan, after which the 'doors will open' - it will not take long to prepare the technical infrastructure," Mehmet Muş announced.

There is no doubt that this condition of the Turkish side was also voiced during the Mirzoyan-Cavusoglu dialogue. So, instead of illusions, Armenia must act, and in a hurry, without shelving the problem. Yerevan must finally realise that without taking into account Azerbaijan's interests, there can be no question of a final rapprochement with Türkiye, and hence the removal of the transport and road barrier between Ankara and Yerevan.

Right, Türkiye and Armenia have indeed already taken concrete steps towards normalisation - in December 2021, the sides appointed their special representatives to negotiate the normalisation of bilateral relations and have already held several rounds of talks (in Moscow and in Vienna).

In addition, the Armenian prime minister and the Turkish president had their first telephone conversation in July 2022 and their first meeting in Prague in October. But this is where it stopped and if Armenian society really wants good neighbourly relations with Türkiye, official Yerevan will have to agree to Ankara's demand for a peace treaty with Baku.

It must also be noted that Turkophobic sentiments remain strong in Armenia and not everyone welcomes the country's possible rapprochement with Türkiye, let alone the need to sign a treaty with Azerbaijan.

Commenting on the difficult relations between Yerevan and Ankara for Caliber.Az, the famous Russian film director and public figure Karen Shahnazarov said that certain progress was visible in Armenian-Turkish relations.

"Armenia's noble gesture towards Türkiye in the form of humanitarian aid is a sign that there is a willingness in Yerevan for some kind of cooperation. I believe Armenia would like to normalise relations with Türkiye. I think that is already evident. But the extent to which the two sides will be able to progress in that direction will depend on the politicians of the two countries. In my opinion, it is necessary that our nations overcome the barriers of the difficult past and restore normal dialogue," Shakhnazarov said, adding that he believes that the persistence of hostile relations in the coming years is unacceptable.