Armenia: A small piece in Washington’s geopolitical puzzle Expert Ghukasyan on consequences of Trump’s win

Armenian political analyst Arman Ghukasyan has voiced concerns about how newly-elected US President Trump's foreign policy could impact Armenia’s security and regional standing.

In an article reported by Caliber.Az citing Armenian media, Ghukasyan highlighted the potential consequences of a Trump administration for Armenia, particularly through its support of Israel.

“The close ties of the newly elected US president with Jewish communities obviously give Israel a chance to strengthen its position and to take even bolder and more aggressive actions. In case anyone has forgotten, let me remind you that Baku's ally Israel provided about 70% of Azerbaijan's major arms imports, which significantly contributed to our defeat in the 44-day war,” Ghukasyan stated.

He also pointed out that increased American pressure on Iran, combined with tensions in the Middle East, would likely destabilise Armenia due to its geographical location and reliance on regional stability.

“Trump's support for this Middle Eastern state will be beneficial to Azerbaijan, which will be able to strengthen its position in the region. In addition, the strengthening of American pressure on Iran, likely in the conditions of full support for Israel and growing tensions in the Middle East, will also hit us: given the geographical location and dependence on regional stability, it is inevitable. How will Armenia act in such a case?” he asked.

Ghukasyan criticised Armenia's leadership for what he described as a failed security policy. He lamented the breakdown of relations with longstanding allies like the CSTO and the lack of viable alternatives. He argued that diversifying arms purchases from countries such as France and India is chaotic and undermines standardisation and logistics.

“Attempts to diversify arms purchases from France, India and others look chaotic. This precludes the integration of weapons purchased from different countries into a single system of management and combat use, and also creates difficulties in standardisation, logistics, personnel training and maintenance,” he noted. "Most importantly, are we being supplied with ammunition that could really change the balance of power? If we look at Ukraine, it is obvious that Western assistance in critical moments can be very selective."

Furthermore, Ghukasyan cautioned against Armenia’s reliance on US support, citing the inconsistency of American foreign policy, which often shifts with changes in administration.

“A change of administration in Washington is almost always accompanied by a revision of previous agreements. Any terms that Pashinyan and his associates might have discussed with the Biden administration, the Trump team can easily ignore,” he explained. “History has repeatedly shown that continuity is not a priority for American foreign policy. To expect any guarantees from Washington and to make decisions centred on the US is not just short-sighted - it is strategically dangerous.”

According to Ghukasyan, Armenia’s absence from Trump’s stated foreign policy priorities, which include achieving peace in Ukraine, supporting Israel, and confronting China, is telling.

“As for Trump's foreign policy priorities, he has already stated that the focus of his attention is on achieving peace in Ukraine, supporting Israel and confronting China - in a word, not a hint of Armenia. Our country has not even entered the geopolitical field of vision of the American leader,” he said.

Concluding his analysis, Ghukasyan posed a critical question:

“How can Armenia avoid new threats in these conditions? Or will we continue the policy of reactive survival instead of building our own strategy? One thing is obvious: whatever administration is in the White House - Trump or Biden - it is naive to expect serious support for Armenia or a favourable position for us. For Washington, we remain nothing more than an element of a large geopolitical puzzle.”

By Tamilla Hasanova