Armenian FM’s intriguing messages and Hungarian PM’s gesture towards Georgia Weekly review by Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az has prepared another episode of “Sobitiya” ("Events") show with Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Abiyev about the most important news of the week related to Azerbaijan and other countries. 

 AZERBAIJAN – ARMENIA

The notable activity was observed in peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan last week. During a parliamentary hearing, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan made several intriguing statements thoroughly covered by Caliber.Az.

However, it is worth highlighting two of them in more detail. While speaking positively about the normalisation process with Türkiye and addressing the events of 1915, Mirzoyan stated that this issue is not the top priority for the Armenian Foreign Ministry. He reiterated that the main focus remains on resolving relations and signing a peace agreement with Baku, as well as conducting delimitation and restoring the routes. 

He noted that Yerevan will soon continue its work with the Azerbaijani side on restoring the routes and other areas where consensus can currently be reached. The Armenian minister's remarks regarding the prospects of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan have garnered particular attention. 

"I will express cautious optimism that we will soon reach an agreement on one or two formulations, after which the treaty will be ready for signing," Mirzoyan stated.

This brings to mind the hour-and-a-half meeting in Russia’s Kazan city between the delegations of Azerbaijan and Armenia, led by their respective leaders. It is also important to recall the letters from US President Joe Biden to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. In these letters, he mentioned the bold initiatives that the US is prepared to undertake to expedite the peace process. Perhaps these initiatives were substantive enough to spur the observed activity in the peace process. 

The Kazan meeting occurred after Special Assistant to President Biden Michael Carpenter delivered letters to the leaders and discussed White House proposals with them. It seems that Baku is leveraging various platforms and initiatives, as it has done in the past, to pursue a just peace. The recent tenth meeting of the state commissions on delimitation, held at the border and chaired by Azerbaijani Deputy Prime Minister Shahin Mustafayev and Armenian Vice Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan should be also highlighted. 

Along with discussing delimitation issues, the sides exchanged notifications regarding the procedures required for the implementation of the joint activity regulations of the aforementioned commissions. They noted that these regulations came into effect on November 1, 2024. After the conclusion of the commissions' meeting, Mustafayev and Grigoryan held separate discussions on transportation routes. However, the budget of Armenia casts a shadow over the emerging prospects for peace, as military expenditures have increased by twenty per cent compared to last year. 

The desire for revanchism, unfortunately fueled by external sides, raises doubts about Yerevan's peaceful intentions.

Georgia 

The final results of the parliamentary election in Georgia were announced at the beginning of the week. According to these results, the ruling Georgian Dream party won with nearly 54 per cent of the votes. The opposition, dissatisfied with the results, has already held one rally and announced another one scheduled for November 4.

Amid criticism from the EU and the US, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán supported Georgia by paying an official visit to Tbilisi just two days after the election. The intrigue surrounding this gesture is heightened by the fact that Hungary is currently holding the rotating presidency of the EU.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell has already stated that "no matter what Mr. Orbán says, he does not represent the EU during this visit."

"The chairman elected on a rotating basis does not have authority regarding foreign policy," Borrell added.

Ukraine – Russia

The Russian army continues breaking through the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Donetsk region. Reports indicate the loss of the settlements of Kurakhove and Selydove in the direction of Pokrovsk.

Meanwhile, confidential information was leaked to the media indicating that Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's plan included the supply of Tomahawk land attack missiles from the US, which have a striking range of over one thousand kilometres. Reports suggest that this proposal angered the US officials. Even the ATACMS missiles were supplied with the condition that they must not be used against Russian territory. 

Given their range, the Tomahawks were specifically requested for that purpose. Many experts think that Zelenskyy is actively preparing to shift the blame for an anticipated defeat onto Western partners. This defeat does not necessarily imply significant further advances by the Russian army. Any ceasefire established, even with the current front lines, will be seen as a personal defeat for Zelenskyy, as it would not align with the objectives of the military campaign he is leading. 

Taking into account the big number of casualties among Ukrainian soldiers, this not only could jeopardize his political career but also lead to serious repercussions, such as legal action for mismanagement of the armed forces. Zelenskyy views the retention of the Kursk region as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Russia. The reports have recently emerged that the first units of North Korean troops will be deployed there. 

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte confirmed that North Korean military personnel are already in the Kursk region. The Pentagon reports that, according to the latest data, there are already 10,000 North Korean soldiers in Russia. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has announced that the US anticipates that these forces, stationed in the Kursk region, will soon engage in combat with the Ukrainian Armed Forces. 

The entry of North Korean forces into the Ukrainian conflict would add a new global dimension to the situation. The primary goal for the North Koreans in this scenario would be to test their troops in preparation for a future operation against South Korea. 

This means that the Republic of Korea and its allies will not remain passive. If North Korean troops engage in actual combat, the situation will escalate not only on the Ukrainian front but also in the Asia-Pacific geopolitical arena. This poses a significant challenge for NATO and its allies, who are already struggling to manage the Ukrainian crisis. Consequently, China’s role here is obvious.

Middle East 

Israel continues its military operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon. The reports indicate that Israel and Hezbollah, with the mediation of US Special Presidential Coordinator for Global Infrastructure and Energy Security Amos Hochstein, are close to reaching a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, Iran continues threatening Israel with a devastating strike in retaliation for attacks on its military facilities. 

"We have the capability to destroy everything that Israel possesses within a single operation," deputy commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Brigadier General Ali Fadavi said. 

This statement implies that Tehran is now preparing to respond in an unconventional manner, as previous drone and missile attacks have not inflicted significant damage on Israel.