Baku’s statement vs Yerevan’s interpretations Return without force

The Armenian Foreign Intelligence Service (FIS) presented its annual report, offering a forecast on the process of normalising Armenian–Azerbaijani relations in 2026.

While outlining the key points of the report, FIS head Kristinne Grigoryan noted a very low likelihood of escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan this year, but allowed that the risks of external interference in the country’s domestic political processes could increase ahead of parliamentary elections.

“Electoral processes have traditionally provided a favourable ground for external actors seeking to strengthen their influence,” Grigoryan said, while refraining from directly naming specific states, but emphasising that such actions are systemic and deliberate in nature.

The report highlights that the likelihood of a military escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan has significantly declined, following the Washington agreements and the initialling of the peace treaty by both sides on August 8, 2025. The document also points to a strong possibility of new progress on border delimitation and demarcation, the implementation of trade and economic initiatives, dialogue between the two societies, and humanitarian projects. The Service further notes a positive outlook regarding the potential unblocking of communications in the region.

However, the report also includes a note of caution. Armenian intelligence draws attention to “certain risks related to Western Azerbaijan and the return of Western Azerbaijanis,” stating: “It is important to determine whether Azerbaijan intends to turn these issues into a national ideology, potentially shifting the conflict onto Armenian territory, or whether this narrative is being used by Baku primarily as a tool of foreign-policy manoeuvring and to counter the return of Armenians to Nagorno-Karabakh.”

This issue requires detailed clarification. The matter in question is not a mere “narrative,” as portrayed by the Armenian side, but the legitimate right of Azerbaijanis forcibly deported from Armenia to return to their homes. For Baku, the issue is not a political slogan; it represents a symbol of restoring justice within the framework of the peace process, whose foundations were established following Azerbaijan’s victory in the Second Karabakh War. If Yerevan is genuinely committed to peace in the region, it will need to fundamentally reconsider its position on this matter.

Moreover, the Armenian side overlooks a critical distinction: unlike Armenians who voluntarily left the Karabakh region of the Republic of Azerbaijan after rejecting Baku’s offer of citizenship, Azerbaijanis from Western Azerbaijan were expelled under the threat of total annihilation. By presenting statements that distort the cause-and-effect sequence of events, the Armenian leadership appears to be obscuring the historical reality of that period.

Official Baku rejects this approach from Yerevan, emphasising that the issue concerns the preservation of the historical memory of the Azerbaijani people—a point repeatedly underlined by President Ilham Aliyev.

“I am sure that there will come a time when our compatriots from Western Azerbaijan, their relatives, children and grandchildren will return to our historical land, to Western Azerbaijan. I am sure that this day will come. I am sure the Western Azerbaijanis will return to their native lands with great desire and enthusiasm. There are many reasons for that. Perhaps the most important of them is the historical memory of our people,” Ilham Aliyev stated during a meeting with a group of intellectuals from Western Azerbaijan in December 2022.

Regarding the risks and threats cited in the Armenian Foreign Intelligence Service report, they appear to lack any factual basis. Official Baku has repeatedly emphasised that Azerbaijan asserts no territorial claims over any neighbouring state, including Armenia.

In a recent address marking the 80th anniversary of the National Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan, President Ilham Aliyev underlined that Azerbaijanis have never pursued separatism:

“Our people have contributed to the statehood of the countries they live in. And today, Azerbaijanis do not create and will never create problems for any state or its people. Therefore, the return of Azerbaijanis to the present-day Armenia should not intimidate the people or the state of Armenia. I said this some time ago as well. We must return to our historical lands - not in tanks, but in automobiles.”

These are the words of a leader trusted worldwide, as his words are always consistent with his actions.

Thus, the Armenian side should set aside its concerns regarding the return of Azerbaijanis to Western Azerbaijan and focus instead on the hybrid threats, which pose a serious danger to the upcoming decisive political events in Armenia. After all, the choices the Armenian people make in the parliamentary elections and the subsequent referendum will determine the future of both Armenia and peace in the South Caucasus.