Pundit: Undoubtedly, Russian air defence systems behind AZAL plane crash

There is no doubt that the crash of the AZAL airline aircraft was caused by the operation of Russian air defence systems in the vicinity of Grozny Airport, said political scientist and Central Asia expert Arkady Dubnov.

"For this reason, Baku expects Moscow to take responsibility for the incident and provide compensation," Dubnov stressed, Caliber.Az reports via Tengrinews.

"The only uncertainty now is whether there was a mistake in targeting, with the ‘Pantsir-S1’ missile system mistaking the civilian aircraft for a Ukrainian drone and directly attacking it, or if the aircraft was struck by fragments of a missile that had destroyed the drone.  We will only know for certain after a thorough examination of the data from the ‘black boxes’ that have already been found," said Dubnov. 

According to him, the initial version of the incident, suggesting that birds struck the turbine, is untenable, as there is evidence to the contrary.

"In the early hours after the tragedy, Rosaviatsiya, citing conversations between air traffic controllers and pilots, reported a collision with a flock of birds. Most likely, this is what the pilots thought happened during the flight… However, the numerous perforations found in the fuselage and wings of the wreckage categorically disprove the ‘bird strike’ version and point to external impact," he said.

The political scientist noted that publications on the Azerbaijani news portal Caliber.Az and in the Euronews agency, citing sources within the Azerbaijani government who identified the Russian air defence systems as the cause of the AZAL aircraft crash, strongly suggest that the Azerbaijani government is committed to uncovering the true cause of the tragedy.

"Moreover, the official Baku expects Moscow to take responsibility for the incident and provide appropriate compensation," Dubnov believes. The expert stressed that the official Baku's stance on the incident is "balanced and diplomatic, yet very principled."

"The dignity of the country and the lives of its citizens cannot be the subject of behind-the-scenes negotiations," he added.

However, according to Dubnov, despite the incident, relations between Baku and Moscow will not undergo significant changes, as Azerbaijan and Russia share common geopolitical interests.

The expert also reminded that a similar incident had occurred in the history of relations between Russia and Azerbaijan, when Azerbaijan accidentally shot down a Russian military helicopter on the border with Armenia in 2020, resulting in the deaths of two Russian pilots.

At that time, Azerbaijan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued an apology, promised to investigate the incident, and to punish those responsible.

By Aghakazim Guliyev