Step toward Azerbaijan-Armenia peace and Global Forum in Baku Weekly review by Caliber.Az  

Caliber.Az has prepared another episode of “Sobitiya” (Events) show with Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Abiyev about the key news of the week related to Azerbaijan and other countries. 

Azerbaijan - Armenia

The trial for individuals accused of war crimes continued in Baku. Several noteworthy statements were made by former leaders of the separatist regime in Karabakh Arkadi Ghukasyan and Bako Sahakyan. Their testimonies confirm the decisive role of Armenia and its leadership in criminal activities against Azerbaijan and the civilians in Karabakh throughout the conflict.

Ghukasyan stated that the funds allocated by Armenia to the "budget" of the separatist regime were labeled as a "loan" but this "loan" was interest-free and indefinite. In other words, there were no immediate plans for repayment. Sahakyan pointed out that all military expenses, salaries, and provisions for Armenian soldiers in the separatist region were directly financed from Armenia's state budget and were not included in those interest-free loans. 

Furthermore, he stated that no "Iskander-M" or "Tochka-U" missile systems, or other destructive weapons, were located in Karabakh, thus confirming that missile strikes on Azerbaijani cities were launched from Armenian territory. Witnesses at the trial, Armenians living in Karabakh, testified that Ruben Vardanyan sponsored the creation of military units aimed at fighting against Azerbaijan. According to their accounts, individuals joined these units in exchange for a reward ranging from $700 to $2,000. Witnesses noted that military warehouses were created with the funds of Ruben Vardanyan, guarded by Armenian soldiers. These warehouses stored a large volume of weaponry and ammunition, as well as drones and other unmanned aerial vehicles, which had been delivered to Karabakh by Vardanyan. 

The witnesses further testified that Vardanyan actively encouraged the Armenian population to arm themselves and fight against Azerbaijanis. Meanwhile, the 12th Global Baku Forum took place in Baku, focusing on the theme "Rethinking World Order: Turning Challenges into Opportunities". The event saw the participation of current and former heads of state and government, ministers, parliamentarians, representatives from international organisations, UN officials, Nobel Prize laureates, scholars, and experts from around the world. The Global Baku Forum serves as a unique platform for exchanging ideas and developing solutions to pressing global issues. 

In his welcoming speech, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev addressed the participants, highlighting his country’s role in international relations and emphasising Azerbaijan's determination in restoring its territorial integrity. He sharply criticised the EU's policy, which he said had become Armenia's "big brother". President Aliyev also pointed out that former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s policy towards Azerbaijan ruined US-Azerbaijani relations. President Aliyev also stressed that, despite the tragic events of the past, Azerbaijan needs to look to the future. 

Azerbaijan needs to have peace in the South Caucasus, he said and that's why Azerbaijan was the initiator of the peace process. It is noteworthy that shortly after the speech by Azerbaijan’s president, news emerged that Azerbaijan and Armenia had agreed on the last two points of the peace agreement. This was confirmed by Azerbaijan's Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov. The points in question involve mutual abandonment of lawsuits in international courts and a commitment not to deploy third-party armed forces along the border. These conditions were put forward by Baku and were finally accepted by the Armenian side. 

However, it is important to understand that the agreement on the text of the peace agreement does not yet indicate the countries’ readiness to sign it. As is well known, there are still two more demands from Baku that, although not part of the current agreement, remain crucial for its signing. These demands include amendments to Armenia’s constitution to remove any claims to Azerbaijan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as the official dissolution of the outdated and non-functional OSCE Minsk Group and related structures. This statement was also made by Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry. 

Soon after, Armenia’s Foreign Ministry also confirmed that all points of the peace agreement with Azerbaijan had been agreed upon. As for the preconditions concerning Armenia’s constitution and the dissolution of the Minsk Group, Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, speaking to journalists, stated that Yerevan has never recognized the legitimacy of these conditions put forth by Baku. In this case, things might be quite simple. There is no need to officially acknowledge these conditions as part of the agenda if it seems they might harm your popularity. It would be enough to take these steps on your own initiative. 

Of course, dissolving the Minsk Group would be a relatively straightforward task, and I believe that in the coming months, we will see a corresponding decision from Yerevan. As for constitutional reform, this indeed presents a challenge for the ruling party, as well as for Armenian society as a whole. However, it is only by addressing this challenge that one can be assured of peace with Azerbaijan, and of stability and prosperity for Armenia. At the Global Baku Forum, President Ilham Aliyev gave an interview to Euronews, where he shared his vision of the current state of international relations. 

He specifically noted that, in the future, it would be crucial for many countries to focus primarily on bilateral relations rather than activities within international institutions. The Azerbaijani president emphasised the importance of strengthening sovereignty. "If you depend on someone and constantly ask for help, eventually that person will come and present you with a bill," said President Aliyev. He particularly highlighted the role of the US in global affairs, once again criticising the unjust nature of the previous administration’s policy toward Azerbaijan's national interests. 

President Aliyev expressed that Baku is highly enthusiastic about rebuilding strong partnership ties with the US under the Trump administration. As if to confirm the words of the Azerbaijani leader, news broke that a plane carrying Donald Trump's Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Whitcuff, landed in Baku. However, recent events suggest that Whitcuff's responsibilities extend beyond the Middle East—he is also playing an active role in negotiations between Washington and Moscow, and according to reports, he flew to Baku directly from the Russian capital. 

Observers suggest that his visit could be linked to efforts to include Azerbaijan in the Abraham Accords Declaration. At the same time, it is possible that Baku is also being considered as a partner for more urgent matters, such as serving as a venue for talks between Moscow and Washington, as well as peace negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv. Notably, high-level meetings between Russian and Western officials have previously been held in Baku. 

Ukraine – Russia

During an offensive operation, the Russian army succeeded in driving Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region. Kyiv claims that the Ukrainian units withdrew from the area due to the completion of their operation. However, it is also reported that a portion of the Ukrainian forces remains surrounded. Meanwhile, the Kursk operation did effectively tie down significant Russian forces, thus slowing the Russian breakthrough in the direction of Pokrovsk of the Donetsk region. 

At the same time, during a meeting with American officials in Saudi Arabia's Jeddah, the Ukrainian delegation expressed Kyiv's willingness to accept a 30-day ceasefire. Following this, the US lifted all previously imposed restrictions on military aid to Ukraine. Shortly thereafter, Vladimir Putin also agreed to the ceasefire but outlined a number of points that need clarification. Essentially, Putin put forward conditions that would deprive Kyiv of the ability to rearm and carry out mobilisation during the ceasefire period. 

Furthermore, he insisted on eliminating the root causes of this crisis, which can be interpreted in a very broad manner. It appears that the range of Moscow's demands and the potential methods of pressure from Washington are at the heart of the messages being exchanged through US Special Envoy Steve Whitcuff.

Middle East

Israel is currently negotiating with Hamas regarding the terms of the second stage of the hostage exchange deal. Meanwhile, reports have surfaced—causing considerable controversy in Israel—that the US is directly engaged in talks with Hamas to secure the release of hostages who are US citizens. 

The situation surrounding the US-Iran nuclear dialogue is also evolving interestingly. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, responding emotionally to President Trump's demand that the Islamic Republic must abandon its nuclear weapons programme, declared, "Tehran will not be forced to bow in humiliation. We would rather die with honour than live in disgrace." In contrast, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei offered a more elaborate response: "They say, 'We will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.' If we truly wanted to develop nuclear weapons, America wouldn't be able to stop us."

This, one might argue, sounds more like a veiled acknowledgment of Tehran's willingness to meet Washington's terms. It seems likely that an agreement has already been reached without any formal negotiations. The Supreme Leader revealed the actual situation, while the president was allowed to express more defiant rhetoric for patriotic reasons and to preserve image on the international stage. In the end, it appears both sides are satisfied.