Armenia’s ICC membership is an alarm bell for Russia What does Moscow think?

It seems that the intricacies of allied relations between Moscow and Yerevan will present many more "surprises". Despite the tangible chill between the two countries caused by Armenia's anti-Russian demarches, Moscow appears to be trying to soften the differences in relations with its South Caucasus outpost.

As is known, Armenia officially became a full member of the International Criminal Court (ICC) on February 1, 2024, joining the Rome Statute.

The Armenian National Assembly ratified the document on October 3, 2023. Retrospectively, Yerevan also recognizes the jurisdiction of the ICC from May 10, 2021, and "undertakes to cooperate with the international court to the fullest extent and without delay," the media reported citing Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan.

Meanwhile, commenting to reporters on Armenia's accession to the ICC, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the move was the country's sovereign right.

"But, on the other hand, it is important for us that such decisions do not negatively affect our bilateral relations. Which we value and which we hope to further develop," Peskov emphasized.

Earlier, Russia unequivocally stated that it considers Armenia's plans to join the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court "absolutely unacceptable". Moscow's categorical attitude in this matter was related to the ICC's decision to issue arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Children's Ombudsman Maria Lvova-Belova. At the time, Dmitry Peskov called the very raising of the issue of Putin's arrest outrageous and the ICC warrant null and void, thus warning Armenia of the extremely negative consequences of joining the ICC.

Last September, Peskov said that "Moscow considers Armenia's decision to ratify the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court extremely hostile to Russia."

"Because here we are talking exactly about the statute, which we do not recognize, we are not a party to it. But these decisions are extremely hostile to us," Peskov said. Thus, by default, it was assumed that Moscow could apply its available instruments of influence to Armenia. But nothing of the sort happened.

Obviously, Moscow has decided to ignore yet another audacity of the leadership of the "country of stones" in order to keep it in the orbit of its influence. Due to Armenia's constant looks to the West, Moscow prefers to use a "soft power policy" rather than threats.

However, the reality is that in the case of Armenia, such an approach further emboldens Yerevan. As history has shown, Armenia understands only the language of force, not diplomacy. Had it not been for the strong will and determination of the Azerbaijani leadership, Armenia would have continued to keep the Azerbaijani territories under occupation. Accordingly, the more concessions Russia makes to Armenia, the less Yerevan will consider the opinion of its suzerain and fulfill its allied obligations to Russia.

However, Armenia has repeatedly proved its failure as an ally of Russia. For example, contrary to Moscow's wishes, Armenia stationed an EU intelligence and surveillance mission on its territory. Further, contrary to Moscow's displeasure, Armenia is deepening its relations with the West, including NATO. Armenia's demarches to the CSTO are also in the same context.

Curiously enough, the Armenian side previously tried to justify its decision to join the Rome Statute to Russia by referring to tensions on the conditional border with Azerbaijan. There is no doubt that Armenia indeed primarily hoped to get an additional opportunity to put pressure on Azerbaijan using the ICC mechanisms. However, this is not the most convincing argument for Moscow, especially in the context of confrontation with the West.

Caliber.Az spoke with Stas Pritchin, a Russian expert and Senior Researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at IMEMO, about what factors contributed to the revision of the Kremlin's position on Armenia's accession to the ICC. In his opinion, there is a feeling that Moscow has decided not to focus attention on this issue, as there is an understanding that the decision was made by Armenia and it is difficult to force to change it.

“My only explanation is that Moscow understands that with this very decision, Armenia primarily limits the possibilities of interaction with the Russian side. But at the same time, Russia leaves the opportunity for Armenia to at least maintain the bilateral relations that have developed at the current level. Moreover, from a terminological point of view, it is difficult to accept Moscow’s behaviour as a concession to Armenia. The concession assumes that Moscow is doing something in response to get something from the Armenian side. In the current conditions, Moscow does not have many instruments of influence on Yerevan,” Pritchin said.

Speaking about the risks that Russia may face due to Armenia’s membership in the ICC, the expert suggested that in its right mind, Yerevan is unlikely to join sanctions against Moscow, otherwise the Armenian economy will suffer greatly, first of all.

“In this case, given Armenia’s dependence on the Russian market and investments, its economy will go bankrupt. The same story is observed in relation to the CSTO. Despite the claims against the organization, there are no real steps on the part of Armenia to withdraw from the CSTO,” Pritchin noted, essentially confirming that the statements of the Armenian authorities are nothing more than declarative in nature.

We would like to add that Armenia’s entry into the ICC, to put it mildly, is an alarming bell for Russia, since, despite its serious dependence on Moscow, Yerevan still pushed through its political scam, ignoring the interests of its overlord.