Armenian ex-minister warns against overestimating Armenia's importance to Russia

Vardan Aramyan, former Minister of Finance of Armenia, has cautioned against Armenia overestimating its significance to Russia, suggesting that Russia's engagement with Armenia may primarily be driven by political rather than economic considerations.

“I think that Russia’s steps towards Armenia will be more political than economic in nature,” Aramyan expressed his views during a conversation with journalists, highlighting the economic realities between Armenia and Russia, Caliber.Az reports.

He argued that while Armenia may consider itself indispensable to Russia, economic data suggests otherwise. Aramyan pointed out that Russia has viable alternatives in the form of Kazakhstan, Turkey, and Georgia, while Armenia lacks a proportional alternative.

“The deterioration of relations with Russia means unemployment and a difficult social situation. Even without this, people in Armenia with low and middle incomes live worse than before 2018. If people hope that they will burn wood instead of gas, this means that the problems in industry and agriculture will worsen even more,” the ex-official noted, calling on the authorities to name what they will replace cooperation with Russia in the field of energy, exports, tourism.

Regarding potential implications for tourism, Aramyan cautioned that increased confrontation with Russia could adversely affect tourist flows to Armenia. He highlighted Armenia's economic ties with Russia, including transfers, and questioned whether the Armenian authorities have secured promises from the West to compensate for potential losses resulting from strained relations with Russia.

“In terms of transfers, we are also connected with Russia. And if Russia introduces restrictions, what will the Armenian authorities do? Has the West made promises that can compensate for all these losses? For example, such support was provided to Georgia. As for the statement of the Armenian authorities about the possibility of filing an application to join the European Union, this requires time and serious effort, it is very difficult to enter the European market, it requires serious expenses. The authorities must make informed decisions,” Aramyan emphasized.

Aramyan also raised concerns about the complexity of replacing Russian gas with Iranian gas, citing limitations in gas pipeline capacity and potential negotiations with Azerbaijan for increased gas supplies.

“This is seven times more than Iran supplies. Even if Iran is ready to increase gas supplies, then at what price? If we talk theoretically about Azerbaijan, it will naturally put forward additional demands in exchange for this,” the ex-minister noted.

In conclusion, Aramyan advocated for a balanced approach to cooperation with both Russia and the West, emphasizing the need for informed decision-making and careful consideration of the economic and political ramifications of any strategic shifts.