Experts react to President Aliyev’s warning: Armenia must choose peace over escalation No more weapons, no more delay

On January 7, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev appeared in an interview with local TV channels, where he made several key statements, including direct warnings to Yerevan regarding its ongoing militarization efforts.

"I want to say once again that we cannot just watch this as observers," Aliyev emphasized. "Armenia must immediately stop arming. France and other countries that provide it with weapons must terminate and cancel these contracts. The weapons that have already been sent to Armenia must be returned. This is our condition."

Aliyev's warning has sparked interest among foreign political analysts who evaluated Armenia's military policy in light of these comments in a conversation with Caliber.Az.

According to Talgat Kaliyev, a candidate of political sciences and member of Kazakhstan's National Kurultai under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kazakhstan has long supported peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. "Kazakhstan, under President Tokayev’s leadership, has been a consistent proponent of a peace treaty and even initiated the Almaty platform for negotiations," Kaliyev explained. "Astana will deeply regret if this treaty faces collapse."

Kaliyev also expressed concern over Aliyev's fears regarding Armenia's actions, noting that the situation is dire. "The futility of Yerevan’s attempts to change the situation in its favour is quite obvious," he said. "Armenia must take Aliyev’s warning seriously, as ignoring it could lead to further escalation."

"Azerbaijan has demonstrated during the war that it has the strongest army in the region. So, I think that any efforts by other countries to arm Armenia cannot be successful in the short term, because it’s not just about supplying weapons, but also about training those who will use them. And this is a rather lengthy process," the analyst said.

He added, "Nevertheless, we hope that a peace treaty will be signed, because Armenia itself is primarily interested in this, even if it doesn’t openly admit it. The conclusion of the peace treaty and the opening of the Zangezur corridor would allow Armenia to join the Trans-Caspian transport corridor and normalise relations with its key neighbours — Azerbaijan and Türkiye."

In Kaliyev’s view, given the current state of Armenia's struggling economy, this approach could significantly and quickly improve the welfare of the country's population.

"Therefore, I believe that Armenia and every Armenian citizen should be interested in concluding a peace treaty and opening the Zangezur corridor. It would mark a new chapter for the entire region. I repeat: the militarisation of Armenia will not lead to success in shifting the balance of power in the region, either in the short or medium term. I believe that the leader of Azerbaijan is the most significant figure, whose statements are being closely watched in Armenia, and his message will be heard," Kaliyev concluded.

Belarusian international expert Boryslav Osinchuk stated that President Aliyev's warnings should certainly be seen by Yerevan as a call to action. He emphasized that although Azerbaijan, as the victorious country in the 44-day war, is in a strong position, Aliyev's statements are a call for peace, not conflict.

"It should be noted that some Armenian public figures have begun misinterpreting President Aliyev's words," Osinchuk explained. "However, it's quite clear that Aliyev was once again urging Armenia to pursue peace, not to continue fighting. 'We want peace. We want to turn the page of war,' Aliyev said. His message was clear: peace is Baku's priority in the region, and Armenia needs to acknowledge that."

Osinchuk continued, "This is not the first time that Aliyev has addressed Armenia directly, emphasizing peace. Armenia should now engage in peaceful cooperation with Azerbaijan rather than resorting to deceit or forming alliances with the West against Baku."

He noted that whether Yerevan will heed this message remains uncertain. "In my opinion, it is worth listening to it. Practice shows that Aliyev has offered peace to both Yerevan and Armenians in Karabakh in the past, but they have rejected it, often suffering because of their stubbornness. It should not happen again. If Armenia insists on unpredictability, Baku is also capable of surprising them," Osinchuk concluded.