France in South Caucasus: An attempt to establish itself against the backdrop of failure in Africa Mavrov and Tsukerman on Caliber.Az

A plethora of questions have recently been asked by French policies in the South Caucasus, where Paris has taken a clearly pro-Armenian stance. As it has come to light, France will transfer weapons to Armenia and its Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu told the Senate discussions of the country's defense budget.

He told the senators that he intended to discuss issues of finalizing operational and specific cooperation measures with Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan.

Earlier, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna told a presser in Yerevan that Paris is ready to conclude an agreement with Yerevan on the provision of military equipment. She noted that she could not provide details, but “a number of issues have already been agreed upon between Paris and Yerevan.”

Many people wonder why France has chosen such a role for itself? Maybe, Paris wants to show that France is also an empire that has influence in the South Caucasus? However, it plays on only Armenia’s field in the region. Maybe, this is explained by the fact that France is Turkey’s enemy, and not only in the South Caucasus, but also in the southeastern part of the Mediterranean? Paris supports Greece, and wants to minimize Turkey’s regional influence in this part of the Mediterranean Sea.

Can this be considered part of a larger rivalry? In the South Caucasus, this resulted in France finding its niche in Armenia and now trying to gain a foothold here, supporting not only Yerevan, but also Iran (albeit in a somewhat veiled manner). At the same time, Paris does not in any way contribute in practice to reconciliation between the Armenian and Azerbaijani peoples, but, on the contrary, sets itself the opposite task. Is it possible to somehow overcome, change this role of France in our region, or will this continue to be the case?

Well-known foreign experts expressed their views on this matter to Caliber.Az.

Ukrainian orientalist Grigory Mavrov considers it important to note several points.

“First, France and Armenia are connected by the Armenian diaspora, although not the largest, but very well integrated into French society. The first in Europe and the second in the world. This includes actors, businessmen, scientists and politicians. For example, the current Interior Minister, Gerald Darmanin, according to some sources, has Armenian roots, but probably the most famous Frenchman of Armenian origin is the singer and actor Charles Aznavour. One can also mention former President Nicolas Sarkozy's advisor Patrick Devedjian, whose grandfather was an Ottoman official and came from Turkish Armenians.

“Second, France has always been closer to Armenia than to Azerbaijan, and here we do not see significant changes in French policy. France was part of the group of mediators (OSCE Minsk Group) to resolve the conflict in the so-called Nagorno-Karabakh, but during the entire existence of this group, it was not possible to achieve much progress in returning the occupied territories to the control of the legitimate authorities,” Mavrov noted.

Currently, France has openly declared that it is on the side of Armenia, he believes.

“That is, this is no longer a mediating country, but a state that supports one of the parties to the conflict. Third, Paris is losing its traditional spheres of influence; it is being forced out even from Africa, where France has been actively present for more than a century. Especially under President Macron, France supports Greece quite seriously, supplies it with weapons and conducts joint military exercises. In 2021, Greece and France entered into a defense alliance and further strengthened military cooperation. It is clear that France considers Turkey its main rival in the Eastern Mediterranean and is actually creating an alliance to counter the interests of Ankara and its allies,” the orientalist believes.

Thus, Armenia’s involvement in the orbit of France is part of the Macron administration’s ambitious project to create its own regional security system, and, of course, is caused by the need to somehow smooth out or compensate for the catastrophic situation of Paris in Africa, Mavrov concluded.

American analyst, expert on geopolitics and security, editor-in-chief of The Washington Outsider Irina Tsukerman, in turn, believes that there is no need to worry too much about France’s position in the South Caucasus.

“Despite all the talk, it has no practical relation to reality and is mainly focused on France’s commercial interests, pressure from the Armenian diaspora and an opportunistic fixation on displacing Russia as Armenia’s military patron. However, the results of all this talk are scant. Supplies of military equipment seem distant as the Armenians simply cannot afford top-notch French technology, while France has reportedly exhausted most of its weapons because it provided them for Ukraine's military needs and has not yet increased its capacity," the analyst said.

True, the propaganda machine inside Armenia is strong, she says.

“The Armenian lobby abroad is baselessly spreading rumors about a potential invasion by Azerbaijan, which has plunged the country into war preparation mode with desperate efforts to increase capacity and train troops. But let's face it: the real beneficiaries of this propaganda are Iran and Russia, not Armenia and France. Paris' anti-Azerbaijani stance has not led to any tangible political action other than a few toothless resolutions from the politically irrelevant European Parliament. In the real trade in arms and training, Iran and Russia are at the center of events. Iran has reportedly sold several drones to Armenia and sent its troops there for training. Iran is reported to be smuggling equipment, including missiles, into Russia through Armenia.

“If France is serious about taking on a regional leadership role, it will use this opportunity not so much for cheap demagogy, but for practical action to promote the lifting of sanctions and prevent Russian militarization and the proliferation of Iranian weapons into the region,” Zuckerman concluded.