France’s tactics and Middle East awaiting inferno Weekly review by Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az presents the latest episode of "Events" show with Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Abiyev, which covers the major news of the week related to Azerbaijan and other countries.

AZERBAIJAN – ARMENIA

Azerbaijani judokas have achieved a remarkable feat at the Paris Olympics, winning two gold medals for their country.

Congratulations to Azerbaijani athletes, Hidayat Heydarov and Zelim Kotsoiev, and we wish them further success in their sporting careers. Currently, Azerbaijan holds the 18th position in the medal standings at the Summer Olympics.

The negotiation process with Armenia has not been marked by significant events, except for some peculiar statements made by Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan. While in Nicosia, during a joint press conference with his Cypriot counterpart, he mentioned the alleged forced relocation of Karabakh Armenians.

Furthermore, after offering a vague commitment to the Almaty Declaration, Mirzoyan raised concerns about a proposal—allegedly stalled due to Baku’s fault—regarding the "establishment of mechanisms to monitor border incidents and weaponry."

This statement echoes a similar pseudo-constructive proposal from Yerevan made a few months ago, which suggested a mutual withdrawal of troops from the border.

The defeated party is demanding guarantees instead of eliminating any signs of revanchism. Our guarantees were that we did not cross the, albeit unofficial, Armenian border. Just consider the nobility of this stance. It's akin to the Soviet Union being satisfied with pushing the Germans out of its territory and stopping at Brest.

Indeed, unlike the Third Reich, the Third Republic has powerful backers. However, even they cannot establish peace in the South Caucasus without meeting the main condition: removing territorial claims against Azerbaijan from the Armenian constitution. Yerevan would be better off focusing on this issue rather than pretending to be constructive negotiators.

Azerbaijani president's representative on special assignments Elchin Amirbayov stated during discussions at the Hudson Institute that the sides have never been as close to a peace agreement as they are now.

"Restoring the Zangezur Corridor could serve as a confidence-building measure between the two countries, as it would, to some extent, increase their mutual dependence," he added.

This suggests that although Yerevan is attempting to stall, it will eventually have to make peace on fair terms with Baku to avoid regional isolation.

UKRAINE – RUSSIA

The Russian military continues its advance on the Ukrainian front. The most significant progress has been made in Pokrovsk area of Donetsk Oblast. There are also reports of fighting in Toretsk city.

Meanwhile, the first batch of the US F-16 fighters has arrived in Ukraine, Bloomberg reported on July 31, citing informed sources.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, this initial delivery includes few aircraft, with the shipment scheduled for late July. The delays in delivering the long-promised fighter jets are adding to the Ukrainian leadership's concerns.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that ending the conflict with Russia is Kyiv’s top priority. Meanwhile, Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak indicated that Kyiv is prepared to engage in discussions with Moscow to resolve the conflict.

However, it seems that Kyiv is merely acknowledging the situation as it stands. Last week, an event occurred that analysts universally interpret as an indication of an impending deal between the US and Russia concerning Ukraine.

With Ankara's mediation, a major prisoner exchange took place at Esenboga Airport between Western countries on one side and Russia and Belarus on the other. The exchange included political prisoners and spies. Experts suggest that this move demonstrates trust between the parties and is likely to precede geopolitical agreements.

MIDDLE EAST

The conflict in the Middle East has sharply escalated. A rocket allegedly fired by Hezbollah killed twelve children in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. In response, Tel Aviv targeted and eliminated two high-ranking officials from opposing groups.

As a result of an Israeli airstrike on Beirut, Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr was killed. Subsequently, Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran while attending the inauguration ceremony of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

The explosion occurred in the room of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps  (IRGC) veterans' house, where Haniyeh was at that moment. Israel has not disclosed the details of the operation, but it could have been either a bomb hidden in the room or a missile strike either from Iran or from a greater distance, such as from military aircraft or even ships.

Whatever the circumstances, the fact remains that Israel and its allies have a clear view of Iran, and Iran's air defenses are unable to counter this threat. This action has become both a challenge and a trap for Tehran. It cannot ignore the situation, if only for reasons of prestige. The question now is how Iran will respond and what kind of retaliatory strike this might provoke from Israel.

It appears that Israel, leveraging its air superiority, aims to neutralize the military threat from Tehran and is skillfully manipulating its allies, particularly the US, to achieve this. The Americans are unlikely to oppose Israel in the face of the anticipated attack. Tehran has vowed a strong response, and a new escalation could begin at any moment.

OLYMPICS

As for the Paris 2024 Olympics, it continues  surprising us. Organizers are confiscating flags from representatives of Turkic states when they celebrate their victories. In contrast, athletes from other countries face no such interference from the French policemen.

The biggest controversy, perhaps, revolves around the victorious procession of biological men competing in women’s boxing, specifically Algerian Imane Khelif and Lin Yu-ting from the unrecognized entity in Taiwan. In one of the quarterfinal bouts in the welterweight category, Italian Angela Carini, unable to withstand the pressure from the testosterone-fueled Khelif, conceded defeat at the 46th second.

This case vividly illustrates what is happening on a global scale. It is often presented as a clash between the new and traditional values. However, I believe this definition is not entirely accurate, as the concept of "traditional values" is an easy target for mockery.

Traditional values are not always positive. Many traditional values can drag society down into stagnation and medieval obscurity. Therefore, it's important to emphasize that this is not just a battle between new trends and tradition, but rather a conflict between deviations from nature, exceptions to the rule, and errors against established norms.

To satisfy the ego of one transgender person, the Olympic Committee mocked millions of women around the world, violated tens of millions of fans and spectators for whom fair play is the main reason why they love sports.