Quiet diplomacy of war Is Belarus emerging as a mediator?

Against the backdrop of the Russia–Ukraine war, which has been ongoing for more than four years and whose end, according to sceptics, is not yet in sight, a growing trend can be observed toward the activation of informal and backchannel communications between the parties to the conflict. Reports that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy may have conveyed a certain message to Russian President Vladimir Putin via Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko fit into this broader picture and suggest Kyiv’s attempts to use all available mechanisms to reach a negotiation track.

It is worth noting that Zelenskyy has not limited himself solely to the military dimension of the confrontation—parallel efforts have been made to seek a political settlement to the conflict. This includes the Ukrainian president’s public appeals to Vladimir Putin with proposals to meet and discuss conditions for ending the war, as well as less public but widely discussed attempts to establish communication channels through Russian businessman Roman Abramovich, who at one point was considered an informal intermediary between the sides.

Now, according to available information, Kyiv appears to be seeking to involve Alexander Lukashenko in this mediating role, a development that may seem paradoxical at first glance, but only at first sight.

From Ukraine’s perspective, Belarus has long been involved in the conflict, albeit not in the form of direct participation by its Armed Forces. At the outset of the full-scale Russia–Ukraine war, missile strikes on Ukrainian cities were launched from Belarusian territory, and the country’s infrastructure was used to support Russia’s military needs.

However, it is important to understand that despite Belarus being politically and financially aligned with the Russian Federation, Minsk is not interested in becoming a full-fledged participant in the hostilities.

This is reflected both in statements by Alexander Lukashenko about the need to “negotiate in a humane way,” and in signals of contacts with representatives of the Ukrainian side. In this context, mediation also fits into Belarus’s broader effort to strengthen its position on the international stage.

This logic helps explain the Belarusian president’s increased foreign policy activity, including his visit to China, as the People’s Republic remains one of the few global centres of power capable of influencing both Moscow and the broader dynamics of the conflict.

Viewed through the prism of a coherent overall picture, the coincidence of several factors appears revealing: on the one hand, there are reports of a signal allegedly sent by the Ukrainian leader to the head of the Russian state via the President of Belarus; on the other, Vladimir Putin’s statement that Belarus could be used as a platform for negotiations; and on the third, information about contacts between Kyiv representatives and Minsk. Taken together, these elements may indicate the beginning of cautious preparations for potential backchannel negotiations.

However, diplomatic activity by no means implies a reduction in military pressure—quite the opposite is occurring. In recent months, Ukraine has intensified strikes on Russian infrastructure, including oil refineries, and has taken steps aimed at isolating Crimea. This represents an attempt to raise the cost of continuing the war for Russia and thereby strengthen its negotiating position.

In turn, the Russian side is also not prepared to make concessions and is systematically carrying out missile and drone strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, while simultaneously shaping its own agenda for possible negotiations.

Thus, we are witnessing a classic situation: an increase in the intensity of hostilities is accompanied by a gradual probing of diplomatic channels. If the current dynamics persist, the most likely scenario would unfold in stages: first, closed contacts at the level of representatives; then the formation of a preliminary agenda; and only after that—possible meetings between the leaders of Ukraine and Russia, including Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin. The role of intermediaries in this process will be critical, and Belarus—despite all circumstances—may well become one of them through Alexander Lukashenko.