Will Ukraine’s operations in Africa contain Russian influence? Intercontinental war

On February 6, video footage circulated on the Ukrainian mass media in which alleged agents of the special forces appeared Ukrainian secret services (GUR) engaged in an operation to "neutralize" the Wagner group militias in Sudan, as well as other individuals linked to the services of the Russian Federation.

It has surfaced following months of speculation that Ukrainian forces are operating in Sudan as part of an emerging campaign by Kyiv to strike at Russian interests far beyond the Ukraine war’s frontlines.

Since the inception of the Russo-Ukraine war in February 2022, various sources claimed that Ukrainian Intelligence conducted overseas operations against Russia in Syria and Africa in an effort to inflict grave damage on its forces stationed in these areas. However, until recently, there was no evidence of such operations as official Kyiv did not make any statement regarding these reports.

According to the video footage, GUR servicemen interrogate the captured Russian Wagner Group contractors. The Wagner Group, a Russian government-sponsored private military company (PMC), gained notorious prominence for its destructive role in Ukraine during the early months of the war. Then led by Russian businessman Yevgeni Prigozhin, the Wagner fighters took part in capturing Bakhmut, though at the cost of huge casualties.

After Ukraine, the Wagner contractor took an active role in the ongoing coup d'etat in Sudan since April 2023 between the army and local militants. In this confrontation, Wagner PMC demonstrated firm support to RSF leader Mohammad Daglo. The Wagner Group’s activities in Libya, Sudan, and other parts of Africa have given Russia a foothold in these countries that it does not want to relinquish.

The Wagner was engaged in helping to put down pro-democracy demonstrations and in lucrative gold mining operations. Some of this gold, reportedly transferred through the UAE, has made its way to the Kremlin or has been sold for hard currency, helping Putin circumvent the sanctions that have been imposed on Russia since the beginning of the Ukraine war.

Russia has received privileges from the country's authorities, and in return, it gave up 30% of its stakes in several of its projects. The United States (US) and the European Union (EU) have imposed sanctions on these companies.

Later, Russia confirmed its Wagner mercenaries operating in Sudan to wage war against the “destructive elements within the country” in a bid to assist the local government. In September 2023, various speculations emerged on social media that unknown suicide drones attacked Wagner mercenaries’ military outposts in Sudan, as some experts argued that Ukraine intelligence was likely behind the series of attacks.

The operation involved a series of attacks on the paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which is believed to be receiving assistance from Wagner. Two commercially available drones widely used by Ukrainians were involved in at least eight of the strikes, with Ukrainian text seen on the drone controller. Experts also said the tactics used – namely, the pattern of drones swooping directly into their target – were highly unusual in Sudan and the wider African region.

Consequently, it is the first time that the use of such drones is documented outside of Ukraine. According to industry experts, the drones in question are built with extra batteries and an attached warhead. Such drones are capable of carrying a rocket launcher warhead and destroying a target quickly.

While the end to the Sudanese civilian standoff is not on the horizon yet, the Sudanese Armed Forces seem unable to quell the rebellion forces due to the lack of necessary weaponry and professionally trained military personnel. As such, in September 2023, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a face-to-face meeting with the Sudanese Army chief in Ireland to highlight Russian involvement and financing of illegal armed groups overseas.

Indeed, Ukraine's decision to explicitly boost its footprint in Africa to tackle Russian influence would have certain ramifications in terms of a security vacuum and additional pressure on Moscow's interests in this volatile region.

Considering the world community's engagement with the war in Ukraine and Israel, Russia sees the opportunity to make additional inroads by supporting various local governments or anti-government groups in their armed clashes. Such an approach enables Russia to form a new geopolitical axis and get economic benefits by exploiting local resources in unstable countries like Sudan.