India cancels shipbuilding order, Türkiye suspends defense exports Diplomatic row with far-reaching implications?

India's diplomatic relations with Türkiye have reportedly taken a significant downturn following reports that the Turkish government has imposed a moratorium on the export of arms and defense items to India. This development surfaced during a recent session of the Turkish parliament's foreign affairs committee, where a senior government official revealed the decision. The move by Türkiye follows the cancellation of a significant shipbuilding contract by the Indian Navy, which had been previously awarded to a Turkish shipyard.

Suspension of defense exports

Mustafa Murat Seker, a defense procurement official, confirmed that the Turkish government had suspended defense exports to India. Speaking to lawmakers, Seker elaborated, "India is one of the world’s top five arms importers, a massive market, importing close to $100 billion. However, due to our political circumstances and our friendship with Pakistan, our Ministry of Foreign Affairs does not give positive feedback on exporting any defense-related products to India, and consequently, we do not grant any permits to our companies in this regard."

In Türkiye, the approval process for exporting defense items involves the Presidency of Defence Industries (SSB), the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the military. The recent strain in relations between Türkiye and India is primarily rooted in Türkiye's unwavering support for Pakistan in its conflict with India, especially regarding the Kashmir issue.

Cancelled shipbuilding contract

In April, India terminated a lucrative shipbuilding consultancy agreement with Türkiye's Anadolu Shipyard, part of the TAIS consortium. The $2 billion deal involved constructing five Fleet Support Ships (FSS) for the Indian Navy at India's Hindustan Shipyard, with technology and engineering support from Anadolu. India chose to have the vessels built locally, without Turkish participation. Officially, India cited its policy to boost local shipbuilding capacity as the reason for the termination, but it is widely believed that India's discomfort with Türkiye's close ties to Pakistan played a significant role.

The recent developments between India and Türkiye are part of a broader pattern of strategic alliances and rivalries. Over the past few years, Pakistan has sought to strengthen its ties with non-Arab Muslim-majority countries like Azerbaijan and Türkiye. In response, India has strategically engaged with these countries' rivals, such as Armenia, Cyprus, and Greece. This geopolitical chess game is particularly evident in the relationships between Türkiye-Greece and Azerbaijan-Armenia.

Türkiye and Pakistan have significantly deepened their military cooperation in recent years. In 2016, the two countries signed an agreement for Türkiye to modernize Pakistani submarines. In 2018, they settled another deal for Türkiye to manufacture four corvettes for Pakistan, with the first vessel delivered in September 2023. Additionally, there are reports of cooperation on drone production. Türkiye has also voiced its support for Pakistan’s position on the Kashmir issue.

Pakistan's ties with Azerbaijan

Similarly, Pakistan has extended its support to Azerbaijan in its conflict with Armenia. Islamabad has reportedly decided to supply the Azerbaijani forces with JF-17 aircraft, jointly developed with China. This support has been noticed by India, which has reacted by strengthening its ties with Armenia. Azerbaijan's ties with Pakistan are underpinned by mutual interests and shared strategic goals.

During the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, Pakistan was one of the few countries that openly supported Azerbaijan’s military operations against Armenian forces. The partnership extends to defense, with the supply of JF-17 Thunder fighter jets, marking a significant step in their military cooperation. This deal not only enhances Azerbaijan’s air capabilities but also symbolizes the growing defense ties between the two nations.

India's growing ties with Armenia, Greece, & Cyprus

Over recent years, India has actively sought to counter Pakistan's growing influence by engaging more with Armenia, Greece, and Cyprus. India and Armenia have signed agreements for the supply of Pinaka rocket launchers, Swathi radar systems, and artillery ammunition to the Armenian forces.

These military products, though not all delivered before the recent iteration of the Karabakh conflict, signaled India's political stance. In 2022, India supplied Armenia with $40 million worth of military hardware, which included advanced radar systems and anti-tank missiles.

Furthermore, while Pakistan has conducted military drills with Türkiye, India has held exercises with Greece since 2021. In 2024, the Greek prime minister was invited to give the opening address at the Raisina Dialogue, India’s premier conference on international relations. India's engagement with Greece also extends to economic cooperation, with Indian company GMR Group co-developing an airport in Greece. These collaborations signal a strengthening alliance aimed at countering Türkiye's regional ambitions.

India has also been fortifying its relationship with Cyprus, a country that has long-standing tensions with Türkiye over territorial disputes. In recent years, India has increased its diplomatic and economic engagements with Cyprus, further signaling its intent to counter Türkiye's influence in the region.

Implications of Türkiye-India defense dispute

Despite the tensions, India remains committed to reducing its dependence on foreign defense imports and boosting domestic production. The termination of the shipbuilding contract with Türkiye aligns with this strategy. The contract for building Fleet Support Ships for the Indian Navy, now entrusted to Hindustan Shipyard Limited (HSL), involves the delivery of five ships starting from mid-2027.

Larsen & Toubro's Precision Engineering Systems business has secured a contract to construct parts of two Fleet Support Ships for HSL. These ships, crucial for providing logistics and material support to naval task forces at sea, will be built at L&T's state-of-the-art shipyard in Kattupalli, near Chennai. This initiative not only enhances India’s maritime capabilities but also drives economic growth and technological advancement in the country's shipbuilding sector.

Conclusion

The diplomatic and military relations between India and Türkiye are undergoing significant changes, influenced by broader geopolitical dynamics and regional rivalries. Türkiye's suspension of defense exports to India, coupled with India's cancellation of a major shipbuilding contract, underscores the complex interplay of alliances and rivalries in the region.

As India continues to strengthen its ties with Armenia, Greece, and Cyprus, and Türkiye deepens its cooperation with Pakistan, the landscape of South Asian and Middle Eastern geopolitics will likely remain fluid and dynamic. The ongoing shadow rivalry between India and Pakistan, manifesting through their respective alliances, highlights the intricate balance of power and strategic interests in the region.