Azerbaijani leader’s Italian tour, mystery of Kursk “anomaly” and Hamas’ stubbornness Weekly review by Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az has prepared another episode of Sobitiya (Events) show with Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Abiyev, featuring a roundup of the week’s top news related to Azerbaijan and other countries.

AZERBAIJAN – ARMENIA

On September 1, Azerbaijan held its first nationwide snap parliamentary elections. Preliminary results show that the New Azerbaijan Party secured 68 seats, while independent candidates won 44 mandates. Representatives from several other parties were able to capture between one and three of the remaining thirteen seats in the parliament. Final election results will be announced within the coming weeks, following their confirmation by the Constitutional Court.

The Baku Initiative Group organised a conference titled "Illegal occupation of Mayotte island by France" in Baku. Representatives from various Comorian organisations condemned France's colonial policy during the event. The Baku Initiative Group and the Maore Committee have signed a memorandum of cooperation. The Baku Initiative Group has also sent an official letter to the Secretary-General of the United Nations, the Chair of the Non-Aligned Movement, the Secretary-General of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, the President of the European Commission, the Secretary-General of the League of Arab States, and the Chair of the African Union. The letter expresses deep concern over France's illegal occupation of Mayotte Island, which is part of the Comoros Union, and asserts that this constitutes a violation of international law. The week also saw significant engagement between Azerbaijan and one of Europe's giants—Italy.

The president of Azerbaijan made a working visit to Italy at the invitation of President Sergio Mattarella, and President Aliyev held a joint luncheon with him. The meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni reaffirmed the strategic nature of the partnership between the two countries. Meloni shared this update on X. In the presence of President Aliyev and Prime Minister Meloni, three energy-related agreements were signed between the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) and Eni SpA. The visit also featured a roundtable discussion between Italy and Azerbaijan, involving delegations from both countries.

President Aliyev then traveled to Lombardy, to Lake Como, where he participated in the Cernobbio Forum on "Intelligence on the World, Europe, and Italy." The growing role of Azerbaijan on the global stage was highlighted by a dedicated session titled "The Role of Azerbaijan in the New Geopolitical Context." During this session, President Aliyev delivered a speech and answered questions from the moderator. The president highlighted Azerbaijan's role in Europe's energy security, particularly for Italy, and also emphasised the country's active efforts in humanitarian issues. In this context, he particularly noted the launch of the Italy-Azerbaijan University.  

The president also emphasised that Baku is actively working to build bridges between various global players. In this context, he specifically mentioned the climate agenda, noting the mutual claims and accusations among nations and peoples regarding who bears the greater responsibility for damaging the planet and who should pay more for it. As for the normalisation of the Armenia-Azerbaijan ties, the president stated: "Azerbaijan has demonstrated that international law, combined with strong political will, societal consolidation, and physical strength, can lead to significant geopolitical changes."

He added that nearly 80 per cent of the points in the peace agreement have already been approved. A particular point of interest was the moderator's question and President Aliyev's response regarding Azerbaijan's potential role in addressing the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The Azerbaijani leader stated that such a possibility is feasible, given the extensive personal and political connections Azerbaijan has with both countries. President Aliyev noted that Baku is prepared to contribute to a peaceful resolution between Russia and Ukraine if its assistance is requested. An important statement from President Aliyev was: "We firmly support the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine and all countries. However, at the same time, we have not been and will not be part of any anti-Russian sanctions campaign."

President Aliyev also mentioned that Russia, Ukraine, and European institutions have reached out to Azerbaijan regarding the continuation of gas transit through Ukraine.   The moderator also inquired about the Italian members of PACE who have been declared persona non grata in Azerbaijan. President Aliyev noted that Azerbaijan was not the initiator of the tension in relations with PACE. After Azerbaijan restored its sovereignty, PACE decided to strip the Azerbaijani delegation of its voting rights. President Aliyev remarked that this PACE policy is unjust, and as a result, Baku imposed an embargo on the MPs who voted for this decision, taking appropriate retaliatory measures. He emphasised that Baku would lift this embargo if PACE rescinds its discriminatory decision against Azerbaijan.  

UKRAINE – RUSSIA

The Ukrainian Armed Forces successfully halted the Russian army near Pokrovsk. This achievement was made possible by redeploying several elite brigades from other fronts. Meanwhile, intense fighting continues both near Pokrovsk and in Toretsk, Donetsk region. Ukraine will hold onto the territories it has captured from Russia until it compels Russian leader Vladimir Putin to come to the negotiating table, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an interview with NBC News. He stated that this is an integral part of Ukraine's "plan for victory." President Zelenskyy then arrived at the US Ramstein Air Base to participate in a meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group.

He urged Western allies to work towards concluding the conflict with the Russian Federation this fall. It seems that Zelenskyy is trying to leverage the Western response to the invasion of the Kursk region, attempting to convince Western nations that it is a significant bargaining chip to pressure Moscow. While we cannot definitively assess the strength of this argument, it is currently known that Western countries have expressed dissatisfaction with the Kursk operation, labeling it as a violation of agreements. In turn, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Moscow is ready to return to negotiations based on the Istanbul agreements. However, he had previously remarked that it is necessary to address what he called "Ukrainian militants who have invaded the border areas of Kursk region." Thus, Moscow indicates that it does not consider the Ukrainian capture of part of the Kursk region as a negotiable issue.

This suggests that, contrary to Kyiv's hopes, negotiations are unlikely to occur in the near future—unless, of course, Ukraine has a new asymmetric response in store.

Middle East

The Israeli military continues its operation in Gaza. There are ongoing attacks from the north of the country by Hezbollah. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is also carrying out a preventive operation against those involved in a potential uprising in the West Bank, which began at the end of August. Meanwhile, large-scale protests against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have erupted in the streets of major Israeli cities. 

Demonstrators are demanding the release of hostages at any cost. This new wave of protests followed reports that Hamas had killed six hostages, just before Israeli forces arrived at their location. A senior US official stated that "the new American plan for a ceasefire in Gaza is essentially 90 per cent agreed upon." In response, Netanyahu told Fox News, "That is definitely false." The Israeli prime minister said that Hamas is "not ready to reach a deal" and demands that Israel must leave Gaza "without any conditions." However, the day before Netanyahu's statement, Mossad Chief David Barnea visited Doha and informed intermediaries that Israel is willing to fully withdraw its troops from the Philadelphi Corridor during the second phase of the agreement, provided that "operational requirements" are met.

These requirements include installing surveillance equipment controlled by the IDF along the Gaza border and constructing an underground barrier to prevent arms smuggling, with funding provided by the US.

France

After much deliberation, French President Emmanuel Macron has finally announced the new head of government: Michel Barnier, a center-right politician and veteran of the "Les Républicains" party. Barnier, 73, who is well-known for his role as the chief negotiator for Brexit between 2016 and 2019, has also worked within various EU institutions. It remains uncertain whether Barnier's government will gain the trust of the parliament, where no party holds an absolute majority following the elections held on June 30 and July 7. 

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the far-left "New Popular Front" alliance, which secured first place in the elections, stated: "The president has just officially repudiated the election results that he himself appointed. The prime minister will not come from the 'New Popular Front,' which won the most votes... In this way, the elections have been stolen from the French people." Jordan Bardella, leader of the far-right "National Rally," which placed third in the elections, refrained from making harsh statements. 

He announced that he would be closely observing the actions of the new prime minister. Moreover, Barnier visited the illegal separatist entity in Karabakh in 2021, which suggests that we should not expect a warming of relations between Azerbaijan and France.